| A stunning election victory for New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern. A fresh deadline for progress on U.S. stimulus. And a muted start to the week for the markets. Nancy Pelosi has set a Tuesday deadline for more progress on a fiscal stimulus deal before the Nov. 3 election, while President Donald Trump renewed his offer to go beyond the dollar amounts now on the table. Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke at length Saturday night about efforts to finalize a stimulus package to help the U.S. weather the effects of the coronavirus, and agreed to speak again on Monday, Treasury spokeswoman Monica Crowley said on Twitter. Their staffs will keep talks going in the meantime. Currencies were steady at the start of the week and stocks were set to open modestly higher as investors continue to watch U.S. stimulus talks and virus cases increase. The pound held its ground after a report that British officials were prepared to water down Boris Johnson's controversial lawbreaking Brexit legislation. S&P 500 Index futures opened higher in Asia; U.S. stocks were mixed Friday as giant technology companies dropped and the S&P 500 Index closed little changed, while still notching its longest weekly advance since August. China is closing in on the U.S. as the most powerful country influencing the Asia-Pacific, a study showed. While the U.S. is still the region's top superpower, its 10-point lead on China two years ago has been halved, according to the Sydney-based Lowy Institute's Asia Power Index for 2020, which ranks 26 nations and territories. The U.S. "lost prestige" due to its poor response to the pandemic, multiple trade disputes and Trump's moves to withdraw from multilateral deals and agencies, according to Herve Lemahieu, the study's research chief. "The pandemic was a game changer," he said in a phone interview. Check the full ranking here. Jacinda Ardern's emphatic election victory is seen as an endorsement of an inclusive brand of leadership that may ripple beyond New Zealand's borders. In an age of populism and confrontation, Ardern's message of empathy and kindness married with skillful crisis management won her Labour Party its biggest share of the vote in more than 70 years. Ardern, 40, won international plaudits for her response to the deadly shootings at two mosques in 2019; this year, she's demonstrated her steel in tackling the coronavirus pandemic. She's now in a position to lead New Zealand's most left-leaning government in decades but has yet to decide whether to include her ally the Green Party. Global central bankers are under no illusion that the fallout from the coronavirus is over, issuing fresh warnings about new government restrictions, struggling recoveries and threats to jobs. Monetary chiefs from the euro area, Japan and the U.K. were united in their concern about their economies in an online seminar hosted by the Group of 30. They all said risks to the outlook remain to the downside and signaled support is going to be needed for some time. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned that his economy is at risk of a recession if things turn sour, while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde acknowledged that Europe's outlook has been particularly dented by new curbs imposed to contain the spread of the virus. What We've Been ReadingThis is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours: And finally, here's what Tracy's interested in todayThis time last year it was customary to describe the U.S. economy as being driven by a "strong" domestic consumer. Like Atlas bearing the weight of the world on his shoulders, the American consumer was seen propping up the economy in the face of global trade tensions and a slowdown in manufacturing. Now, as the U.S. grapples with the coronavirus, the consumer has proven their resilience once again even as their collective burden seems to grow ever heavier. Bank of America revealed last week that its customers spent more money in September 2020 than they did in the same month of 2019. Retail sales on Friday beat expectations yet again, though — as my Bloomberg colleagues note — that gain is probably a reflection of consumers dipping into their savings.  There are two big questions that come with the surprising resilience of the U.S. consumer. The first is just how big that tailwind of spending might actually be. As Ben Emons at Medley Global Advisors reminds us, the Fed estimated back in May that the so-called multiplier on government spending may be as much as 1.5 when interest rates are this low —meaning every $1 dollar spent in fiscal stimulus could add $1.5 to the economy. The second question is how long the tailwind actually lasts. A big part of increased savings comes courtesy of the $600 weekly payments for jobless Americans that expired in July, replaced by a $300 per week program that has also since been dwindling. You can follow Tracy Alloway on Twitter at @tracyalloway. The U.S. presidential campaign has already been a roller-coaster ride for global investors, and it promises to get even more intense. Join us virtually on Oct. 21 at 1 p.m. Singapore time (GMT+8) to hear how Kathy Matsui, vice chair Goldman Sachs Japan, and Brian Barish, president and CIO of Cambiar Investors, are preparing their portfolios. Register for free here to be part of the conversation or to access all content on-demand at your convenience. | 
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