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Five Things
Bloomberg

Coronavirus crisis, lawmakers leave Washington, and a raft of corporate news. 

Lockdowns 

With Covid infections continuing to surge across Europe, governments are being forced to consider new lockdowns as the softer measures in place aren't working. Popular support for tighter controls seems to be much lower than in the spring, increasing the difficulty for politicians who are now imposing stricter curbs on movement. In the U.S., infections are hitting older populations after a period of prevalence among younger people. 

Senate leaves

U.S. senators departed Washington yesterday for the pre-election break, meaning there's practically no hope of a stimulus package ahead of next week's vote. Talks between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin yesterday again failed to close the outstanding differences thrwarting a deal. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, is concentrating on campaigning, with three rallies scheduled for today and as many as five or six a day expected by the weekend as he makes a final push for re-election. Democratic nominee Joe Biden continues to hold an 8-point lead in national polls, according to RealClearPolitics. 

Shifting sands

The world's largest casino company is exploring the sale of its outlets in Las Vegas as owner Sheldon Adelson focuses Las Vegas Sands Corp. on the Asian market. In Europe, BP Plc eked out a small profit in the third quarter but warned of more challenges ahead. Banco Santander SA reported a profit that beat analyst estimates. Coming up later in the U.S., Microsoft Corp. is expected to post strong results, Caterpillar Inc. will be watched for signs of the health of the global economy. It's a busy day for drugmaker reports with Pfizer Inc., Merck & Co., and Eli Lilly & Co. all likely to watched for news on Covid treatments. 

Markets mixed

Yesterday's tumble in the S&P 500, the abandonment of all stimulus hope and the rampant Covid pandemic all continue to weigh on investors today. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1% while Japan's Topix index closed down 0.1%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was trading 0.7% lower by 5:50 a.m. despite some better-than-forecast corporate results. S&P 500 futures pointed to a slightly higher open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.798%, while oil and gold were little changed. 

Coming up...

September durable goods orders are at 8:30 a.m. Both the Federal Housing Finance Agency and S&P CoreLogic report August house prices at 9:00 a.m. Consumer confidence data and Richmond Fed Manufacturing are at 10:00 a.m. The Robin Hood investor conference kicks off today featuring Stan Druckenmiller, David Einhorn, Boaz Weinstein, Ken Griffin and Paul Tudor Jones.

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morning

The term K-Shaped Recovery has become a surprisingly popular meme over the past several months, as some parts of the economy have boomed, while other parts have cratered. While the unemployment rate has surged, many holders of financial assets are doing extremely well. But in a sense, this is nothing new, and all crises and downturns have K-shaped results. That's an argument put forward by Alex Williams of Employ America, who we had on TV yesterday.

You can see it, for example, in the ratio of the unemployment rate for Black Americans to White Americans in the aftermath of recent recessions. It always rises for years, even after the official downturn is over.

Think back to some of the winners in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis. A company like Uber was able to get going and thrive due to the widespread availability of cheap labor, which persisted for a long time after the collapse. Other big "sharing economy" winners enjoyed the same phenomenon.

What's notable this time with the virus is how rapidly things have unfolded. Years of economic change have been compressed into just 6 months. And so we can see the unequalizing effect that downturns manifest in almost real time. But this is always a feature, and it may speak to why we don't permanently have an instant CARES-like program to replace lost income in an economic downturn. Downturns produce big winners, and so not everyone would like to see them go.

Joe Weisenthal is an editor at Bloomberg.

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