| Risk off, virus curbs tighten and last leg of campaigning. Tumble European stocks sank to a five-month low and U.S. equity futures slumped as rising Covid cases and tighter lockdowns renewed fears about economic growth. There may also be some reduction in risk positions ahead of the election on Nov. 3 with fears about a contested result adding to investors need for havens. The dollar gained, Treasury yields dropped and the VIX rose above 35. Lockdowns German Chancellor Angela Merkel will push for tougher curbs, including shutting bars and restaurants until the end of November, when she meets with regional leaders today. French President Emmanuel Macron will address the nation later today. Meanwhile, hospital admissions in Belgium surpassed the level reached at the height of the first wave of the pandemic. In the U.S., President Donald Trump acknowledged that cases are rising in "certain areas" of the Midwest with data showing hospitalizations soaring in some states. Final pushPresident Trump's frenetic rally pace is set to continue into the weekend, with CBS reporting he is planning 11 events across 10 states in the final 48 hours of campaign travel. While Democratic nominee Joe Biden will visit Iowa, Wisconsin and Florida, his travel pales in comparison with the incumbent. The last-minute push will be meaningless for many voters who have already cast their ballots as data shows the number of early votes is now more than 50% of the entire 2016 turnout. Corporate update Deutsche Bank AG reported a 182 million euro ($214 million) profit in the third quarter, well ahead of the loss expected by analysts, with the figure boosted by a surge in trading revenues. Microsoft Corp. also beat earnings forecasts in its results announced after the bell yesterday, but the stock is lower in pre-market trading after sales estimates disappointed. Speaking of tech giants, the heads of America's biggest internet companies will defend legal protections granted the industry when they testify before a Congressional committee today. Coming up...U.S. wholesale and retail inventories data for September is at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The Bank of Canada is not expected to make any significant changes when it announces its latest decision at 10:00 a.m. There is unlikely to be any good news for the oil market in inventory data at 10:30 a.m. It's a big day for blue-chip earnings with Ford Motor Co., Boeing Co., Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, Visa Inc., Mastercard Inc., and Norfolk Southern Corp. among the many companies reporting results. The Robin Hood investors conference continues. What we've been readingThis is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morningTomorrow we get the Q3 GDP report, and it's expected to show the strongest number ever. But as everyone will tell you tomorrow, that paints a somewhat distorted picture, since Q2 was the biggest plunge ever, and an annualized rate of sequential change doesn't reveal that much.
That being said, it's important to emphasize something, which is that even 7 months after the worst of the crisis, economists still remain too pessimistic about the recovery. Yesterday, for example, we got Durable Goods orders that came in way ahead of expectations (1.9% vs. 0.5%) and home price growth was more robust than expected (5.18% vs. 4.2%). While the Consumer Confidence numbers came in at a bit of a miss, people's assessments of the situation right now showed a nice jump from last month. Finally the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index also came in well ahead of where economists had pegged it (29 vs. 18).  Meanwhile you can see in measures that attempt to gauge the degree to which data is surprising to the upside or downside, that overall for months now, numbers just consistently come in better than economists expect. Of course relative "beats" aren't everything, but to the extent they show the degree to which people are still too pessimistic, it's a striking aspect of this recovery. Joe Weisenthal is an editor at Bloomberg. The world's most influential leaders will be there. Will you? Click here to join Bloomberg New Economy Forum for a virtual Global Town Hall on November 16-19 and be part of change in real time. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. | 
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