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Asian markets ready for losses after American stocks crash. The virus roars back across Europe. And the U.S. charges eight Chinese operatives for tracking dissidents.

Europe On The Brink

Europe's leaders imposed harsher pandemic measures as the virus roars back across the continent. Spain, Italy, the U.K., Greece and Portugal all reported record numbers of new cases on Wednesday. French President Emmanuel Macron ordered a new national lockdown, though schools will remain open, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel will impose a one-month partial lockdown in Europe's largest economy. Melbourne, the city that locked down for three months, may have a bleak lesson for them. Meanwhile, Anthony Fauci said vaccines won't be available in the U.S. until January at the earliest. Even U.S. President Trump acknowledged certain areas are "heated up right now."

Markets Crash

Asian stocks looked primed for losses after shares tumbled in the U.S. and Europe, as rising coronavirus infections and tougher lockdowns added to worries about the economic hit from the pandemic. Futures pointed lower in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong. The S&P 500 lost 3.5% for its biggest drop since June, while a gauge of U.S. equity volatility surged. The dollar rose against every G-10 peer save the yen, with the Aussie among the weakest performers. Treasuries were little changed, while gold declined. Oil fell more than 5%.

"Hunters" Charged

The Justice Department announced that eight Chinese operatives were charged for allegedly carrying out an illegal law enforcement operation in the U.S. aimed at pressuring dissidents to return to China. U.S. officials have previously issued warnings about Operation Fox Hunt, which the Chinese government portrays as an effort to track down "legitimate fugitives" but Washington sees as a "rogue law enforcement" operation to suppress dissidents and critics. The Chinese embassy didn't immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.

The Next 15 Years

The first glimpse into China's economic plans for the next five and 15 years will be unveiled Thursday. The Communist Party is expected to release two policy blueprints at the end of four days of closed-door meetings in Beijing: Their usual five-year plan and a longer strategy document that stretches until 2035. Facing heightened tensions with the U.S. and a virus-battered world economy, officials are expected to chart a course that draws on domestic resources and consumption to guarantee growth. Meanwhile, nearly 1,000 Chinese firms — with a total market value of $2.8 trillion — are due to release their third-quarter earnings Thursday. 

No to Coal

Banks don't want to lend to Australia's coal miners any more. Australia & New Zealand Banking Group said it would end almost all investment in thermal mines and power stations by 2030, the last of the country's Big Four lenders to do so. Meanwhile ANZ's full-year profit fell 42%,  the most in more than a decade, as the coronavirus-induced recession swelled bad-debt charges. It's the first look at what's shaping to be an ugly earnings season for Australia's banks, which are bearing the brunt of the nation's first recession in 30 years as well as mounting costs to clean up years of misconduct.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours:

And finally, here's what Tracy's interested in today

That autocracy is on the rise all over the world seems to be generally accepted nowadays. But Viktor Shvets at Macquarie points out that there's one important place where that hasn't been happening quite as much, and that is within the U.S. Democratic Party. The V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg has created an "Illiberalism Index" to track the move away from democratic norms. That shows a sharp increase for the Republican Party, which has shifted from a relatively liberal starting point in 2000 to authoritarianism on a par with Turkish or Hungarian politics in 2020. Meanwhile, the same index shows a much more modest increase for the Democratic Party, which per Gothenburg's definitions, remains relatively committed to traditional democratic values.

Why does this matter? Shvets's argument is that in many ways the U.S. still remains a global leader and a decisive win by the Democrats in the upcoming presidential elections could herald a global shift back towards liberalism. "It was the U.S. that in the past led on most issues, from national parks and clean water to environmental protection, and this time won't be any different," he says. "A constrained or unconstrained Democratic victory might begin the process of lowering social tensions by accepting a more aggressive state role in economic cycles and wealth re-distribution."

You can follow Tracy Alloway on Twitter at  @tracyalloway.

 

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