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Today's Agenda

Big-City Exodus? Maybe Not

One of the more fascinating ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic may be what it does to domestic migration. As Covid-19 cases exploded early on in New York, the knee-jerk reaction was that people would flee the city in pursuit of more spacious and affordable suburban homes. Perhaps that thinking was partly out of fear that crowded city life was conducive to outbreaks. But far more likely it had to do with how the crisis made working from home more widely accepted, so that employees aren't schlepping themselves to an office building every day. Although some New Yorkers are indeed leaving for one reason or another, the shift away from urban centers is nowhere near as dramatic as it might seem, Justin Fox writes. Americans aren't a very mobile bunch to begin with:

Twice as many people did look to move out of New York City during the pandemic than the year before, according to moving company United Van Lines. The number might even top 200,000 or more in terms of net migration from New York to other parts of the country, from mid-2019 to mid-2020, Justin writes. But calling that an exodus would be a bit hyperbolic against a city population of 8 million. Whether the trend intensifies depends primarily on what condition New York is left in and what civic leaders do about it. A decrepit subway system and ongoing violence certainly won't help. Skyscraper-high rent for a shoe-box-size apartment is another drawback, although the downturn may have spurred some good deals (at least by New York standards). Still, the nation's supply of young people is shrinking, which means that the key to a revival can be seen in the beacon standing right in New York Harbor: welcoming immigrants. Read the whole thing.

Further suburban reading: As shut-in Americans discover their green thumbs, there's the question of which yard upgrades will pay off. Hydrangeas are a nice touch, but swimming pools and fancy lawn lights won't help sell a house. — Sarah Green Carmichael

The Letter of the Day Is 'K'

Some people consider technical analysis — in which an investor studies chart patterns a bit like a psychic reading palms — to be a waste of time, child's play. But now it seems the whole of the market is noodling over an alphabet soup of possible economic recovery formations. At one point, strategists talked of a "U"- or "V"-shaped rebound. They've debated whether it could even look like an "L," "W" or "Z." At least technical analysis terms like "death cross" are more "Game of Thrones" than "Sesame Street." Barry Ritholtz writes that he used to think the letter game was pretty silly, too, until he realized one consonant does perfectly convey the troubling lopsidedness of the U.S. economy that's being exacerbated by Covid-19: the letter "K." Two lines diverging as latitudinal antipodes — the upward shooting arm representing Big Tech and few other industries that have benefited from the pandemic, while the line on a downward angle is everyone else.

The Stock Market Just Wants a President

There's one thing investors hate even more than bad news, and that's uncertainty. They can make calculated decisions to minimize negative outcomes, but they can't prepare for what they don't know. That's why if this U.S. presidential election looks anything like the one 20 years ago, the stock market could react pretty badly, Stephen Mihm writes. The S&P 500 index had dropped almost 10% by the end of November 2000, as George W. Bush and Al Gore continued to square off in the infamous Florida recount. The stakes are even higher this time given the widening divide between the two parties and signals from the incumbent that he may not accept the outcome as legitimate if he doesn't win.

Still, it's obviously better to have an accurate count even if that takes extra time. Different states have different practices for tabulating absentee ballots, and the unprecedented use of mail voting could slow things down, Jonathan Bernstein writes. He says to prepare for an initial tally that leans more red than the final result because more Democrats are likely using mail-in voting than Republicans. Election officials and Congress also need to do something about the shortage of poll workers, an urgent problem that could sway the outcome, Bloomberg's editorial board writes. Poll workers tend to be a lot of retirees, a group that's most vulnerable to Covid-19. States should consider bonuses for those who work in especially busy polling stations and allow high school students who pass a training course to pitch in.

Bonus election reading: If the Centers for Disease Control have the authority to ban evictions because of the public-health crisis, can it restrict in-person voting, too? — Stephen L. Carter

Telltale Charts

Nvidia Corp. is asserting itself as America's new chip leader with graphics cards that promise to dazzle gamers and shareholdersTae Kim writes.

Robots may not be the enemy of employment, and taxing them isn't worth the risk of putting U.S. companies at a competitive disadvantage, Noah Smith writes.

Further Reading

Protests must not undermine the democratic values that protect them. — Andreas Kluth

Data is the 21st century's oil, so the U.S. and China must come together to set rules for digital trade. — Wang Huiyao

Manufacturing data showed that the U.S. economy is doing better than thought, for now. — John Authers

Bad debts at China's banks are a $96 billion problem that's only getting worse. — Anjani Trivedi

Rocket Internet SE's buyout offer is yet another failing of German corporate governance. — Alex Webb

ICYMI

CDC tells states to prepare for Covid-19 vaccine by Nov. 1.

Iowa and South Dakota are becoming new virus hot spots.

Dating app Bumble hopes investors swipe right on a $6 billion valuation.

Kickers

Colleges' first homework assignment is to quarantine.

Magician David Blaine soars the sky using only balloons. (h/t Scott Duke Kominers)

Carole Baskin of "Tiger King" fame will be on "Dancing With the Stars."

"Contact languages" risk extinction.

Note: Please send alphabet pasta and complaints to Tara Lachapelle at tlachapelle@bloomberg.net.

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