Builders and manufacturers could lead this recovery

Follow Us This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a factory-built assemblage of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. Today's Agenda U.S. may soon see a factory and construction jobs boom. Iceland delivers encouraging Covid-19 immunity results. Trump is running out of time to catch Biden. Fed's smart new approach won't help us right now. Nice floor plan. Photographer: Bing Guan/Bloomberg Time to Make Some Stuff The bounce-back from the pandemicession is still pretty tentative, and Friday morning's jobs report may give us a better sense of just how tentative. But construction and manufacturing are already looking strong, writes Conor Sen, raising the possibility that this will be the first recovery in a long, long time to be led by the goods-producing sectors. That's welcome news because it could mean big job gains even as other parts of the economy continue to be held back by Covid-19. The housing market is booming because people who figure they'll be working from home a lot need more space. With the supply of available houses on the low side even before the pandemic, that's good news for those who know how to build them. Meanwhile, things are looking up for U.S. manufacturers due to a combination of pent-up consumer demand and a weak dollar. And though that weak dollar is frustrating for policy makers in the euro zone, argue Mark Gilbert and Marcus Ashworth, they need to resist the urge to start a currency war that could derail the global recovery. Icelanders Aren't Losing Their Antibodies Reinfection has been one of the great looming fears about the new coronavirus. If we can get the disease again and again, this madness might never end. There have in fact been a couple of recent cases where people seem to have gotten the disease twice, but Ferdinando Giugliano reports on an extensive study of Covid-19 recoverees in Iceland with more encouraging results. Almost all retained high levels of antibodies against the disease in their blood for many months, and the immune response was highest among older patients and those with especially severe cases. Breaking News: Trump Is Still Behind Remember when the violence in Kenosha, Wisconsin, was said to have brought a big shift in the presidential race, and betting market participants suddenly decided it was a tossup? (This was on Monday, in case you've forgotten.) Since then we've gotten a ton of poll results mostly showing Joe Biden with about the same big lead over Donald Trump that he's held for months. It's not impossible that Trump will win re-election, writes Jonathan Bernstein, but something really major has to happen to alter the so far quite stable trajectory of the race, and the president is running out of time for that something to happen. The Fed's New Stance The big monetary-policy shift announced by the Federal Reserve last week — it will henceforth worry less about inflation and more about keeping unemployment low — is a good idea, writes Bill Dudley, but it's not going to help the economy much right now. That's up to Congress and the White House and their currently stalled plans for more fiscal stimulus. The Fed's move did seem to be helping stocks by keeping Treasury yields lower than most dividend yields, Brian Chappatta wrote this morning. This seemingly stopped working as soon as markets opened today, though, leading Brian to conclude that the "new indicator that the top is in for stocks" is "when the Bloomberg debt markets columnist writes about them." Telltale Charts We didn't produce many charts today beyond the ones I've already shared, and a couple of those were rendered somewhat out-of-date by market events. So I've made one special for you from some recently updated U.S. Department of Agriculture data. It's about orange juice, which I no longer drink. From the looks of it, you don't either. Further Reading If Boris Johnson wants people to fill London's office buildings again, he needs to address why they're staying away rather than browbeating them to go back. — Therese Raphael German financial regulators didn't just miss the massive Wirecard fraud, they went after those who tried to expose it. Which is maybe even more embarrassing than what their U.S. counterparts did with Enron. — Lionel Laurent The opposition to Donald Trump within the Republican Party is being led by political consultants. What's up with that? — Francis Wilkinson No, the Kenosha shooter was not a member of a "well-regulated militia." — Noah Feldman In Belarus, Vladimir Putin is waging war via media misinformation, as he has a habit of doing. — Eli Lake The U.S. needs to focus on preventing wildfires, not just fighting them. — Bloomberg's editorial board ICYMI Some people sold stocks, and others bought them, at lower prices than yesterday. Covid-19 vaccine trial results may start coming in by the end of the month. The 60/40 portfolio doesn't deserve to keep working. Kickers Talking to Portlanders about what's been going on in Portland. A Florida sheriff creates a Department of PreCrime. How to cheat on AI-graded tests. (h/t Scott Duke Kominers) R.I.P. David Graeber. Note: Please send Icelandic antibodies and complaints to Justin Fox at justinfox@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook.   Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. 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