| Want the lowdown on what's moving European markets in your inbox every morning? Sign up here. Good morning. Brexit negotiations reach crunch time, Trump's tax records were revealed just before the first debate and Spain is becoming a virus hotspot again. Here's what's moving markets. Crunch Time The final scheduled round of Brexit talks gets underway on Monday and both sides are warning that progress must be made in order to meet the October deadline for a trade deal. The European Union says the U.K. needs to accept some of the bloc's key demands and the U.K. indicated it was hopeful that some progress can be made in areas of contention. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces the crunch talks as he also finds himself grappling with a surging unemployment rate, criticism over his government's response to the pandemic and a rebellion in his own party over emergency Covid-19 powers. All of which has combined to cause a drop in his poll ratings. Taxes and Debates U.S. President Donald Trump paid only $750 in U.S. income taxes in both 2016 and 2017, according to two decades worth of his tax records obtained by the New York Times. That is sure to become another key issue in the run-up to the election, as is Trump's attempt to get his Supreme Court nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, approved before voters go the polls. On Tuesday, Trump will face Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the first debate of the election season, with Biden holding the lead in national polls and those for key swing states. Biden will also take to the stage with expectations helpfully lowered by Trump himself, who said he will insist his opponent is drug-tested before they begin. Spanish Hotspot Spanish politicians are urging authorities in Madrid to impose stricter virus measures as a dispute between national and local governments on the virus response intensifies. Elsewhere, the new restrictions put in place in the U.K. last week sparked protests by thousands of maskless people in London, Denmark is warning of a new wave of restrictions and Norway said the world faces a humanitarian and trade crisis stemming from the hundreds of thousands of stranded seafarers around the globe. In the U.S., virus cases in New York topped 1,000 for the first time since June and hopes around herd immunity took a blow after research suggested only 10% of U.S. adults have been exposed to Covid-19. ECB Watching It is an important week ahead for European bond investors. Germany and France will update their issuance plans on Monday and then attention will turn firmly to the European Central Bank. ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to take part in a European Parliament hearing on Monday and then on Wednesday the ECB and its Watchers conference will take place. There, bond investors will scour for clues on a possible extension of the pandemic bond-buying program and any split over whether to add more support soon or wait for more evidence that it's needed. Coming Up… European and U.S. equity-index futures are higher going into the new week, following gains for Asian stocks which were boosted by Chinese industrial profits growing for the fourth consecutive month, showing factories are maintaining momentum as they recover from the pandemic. Oil prices slipped, however, on concerns about the demand outlook. The earnings calendar remains quiet in Europe, as does the economic data schedule. Watch, however, for the listing of German industrial giant Siemens AG's energy unit and for two key rulings due in London which will determine ride-hailing giant Uber Technologies NV's future in the capital. What We've Been Reading This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. And finally, here's what Garfield Reynolds is interested in this morning The dollar bounced back this month amid concerns political and pandemic developments will set off fresh fear trades. However, the fundamentals are stacking up against the greenback. The twin deficit problem — current-account and federal government budget — is already dire and will only get more extreme in the next year or so. The pandemic has hit the U.S. economy hard, while the trade and fiscal situation had already been weakened thanks to trade wars and tax cuts. Perhaps the biggest reason to be bearish the dollar though is the Federal Reserve. It is responding to this crisis with even greater easing measures than those deployed during and after the 2008-2009 global credit crunch. A look at where the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index went back then as the Fed cut rates to zero and then initiated waves of QE should serve to encourage any dollar bears feeling a bit discouraged at the moment.  Garfield Reynolds is a Markets Live reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Sydney. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. | 
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