Jobless claims expected to tick lower, Senate stimulus vote, and decision day at the ECB. Progress checkThere are expected to have been 850,000 new claimants for unemployment benefits last week, with the data published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Continuing claims are forecast to drop below 13 million. If confirmed, the figures would confirm the trend shown in the better-than-expected unemployment numbers for August and the surprising improvement in job openings. Stimulus pressureBetter employment does not, however, mean the labor market recovery is guaranteed as lawmakers in Washington struggle to agree on a new stimulus package. The Senate is poised to vote today on whether to advance the slimmed-down Republican pandemic relief bill, with Democrats saying they have the votes to stop it reaching the 60-member support it needs. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said public pressure on the White House may force President Donald Trump to make the concessions needed to get a larger deal done in the coming weeks. Holding The European Central Bank is not expected to make any change to interest rates when its latest decision is announced at 7:45 a.m. This does not mean that Christine Lagarde will have an easy time in the press conference starting 45 minutes later. While official forecasts will confirm that the region's economy avoided the worst downside risks from the pandemic, the ECB faces the twin challenges of inflation which has turned negative for the first time in two years and a rapidly appreciating currency. Investors will also be on the watch for any hints about more asset purchases before the end of the year. Markets mixed The volatile September for global equities is continuing this morning as stocks struggle to build on yesterday's rally. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.7% while Japan's Topix index closed 1.2% higher. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.2% lower at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time as investors waited for the ECB decision and concerns grew about a pick-up in Covid-19 cases in the region. S&P 500 futures pointed to a drop at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.694% and gold edged higher. Coming up...As well as claims and the start of the ECB press conference, 8:30 a.m. also sees the publication of August U.S. PPI. July wholesale inventories are at 10:00 a.m., with the latest crude inventories data at 11:00 a.m. expected to show a rise in stockpiles. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will deliver the bank's economic policy report at 12:30 p.m. The current round of Brexit talks will conclude in London today, amid increased acrimony between both sides. Oracle Corp. and Peloton Interactive Inc. are among the companies reporting earnings. What we've been readingThis is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morningThis morning I'm thinking about this chart of Tesla and lumber futures and how similar they look. I don't have any theory or bigger thoughts, but I'm struck by it.  Joe Weisenthal is an editor at Bloomberg. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. | 
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