The Kensho Newsletter is back!
| Using Kensho technology, CNBC will surface research and analytic insights designed to create actionable, historical content around market moving events. BANK ON IT?
This week, former Vice President Joe Biden named Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election. Several Wall Street executives applauded the choice, saying it reinforced the idea that the Democratic ticket is more moderate than progressive. With just under 3 months to go, a recent NPR/PBS/Marist poll shows Joe Biden's lead expanding to double-digits, now ahead 53% to 42%, according to the study.
Since 2000, the 90 days leading up to a presidential election tends to paint a mixed picture for stocks. The 3-month period in 2008 skews the results quite a bit, when the S&P tumbled 20% and the Dow dropped 15% during the financial crisis. Excluding 2008, the S&P and Dow traded positively half the time, each logging an average return of around half a percent. However, digging deeper into sector performance, a clear winner emerges.
The SPDR Financial sector (XLF) gains an average of 13.4% in that period, trading positively 80% of the time. The SPDR Energy sector (XLE) also performs well, gaining an average of 5.3% in the period, also a positive trade 80% of the time.
LOSING ITS LUSTER? The rally in Gold took a break this week.
After hitting an all-time high late last week, the precious metal snapped a 9-week winning streak, dropping around 5% - its biggest weekly decline in several months. Analysts noted gold prices are being pushed down as the U.S. 10-year yield jumped to 7-week highs. And according to history, the commodity could stay relatively cool for the next month.
A month after similar losses, the SPDR Gold ETF, the GLD, tends to tick down, shedding about 1%, trading negatively 59% of the time. Meanwhile, the Dow tends to get a boost, gaining 2.6%, trading positively 67% of the time.
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