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Off to a rough start

Balance of Power
Bloomberg

It's only Monday, but there's already a couple more reasons to wonder just how much worse U.S.-China ties are going to get this week — despite some friendly-sounding overtures from Beijing.

Hong Kong police today used a new national security law to go after their highest-profile target yet: media tycoon and pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai, who owns the widely-read Apple Daily newspaper. Footage of 200 police officers searching Apple Daily's offices rattled a city already afraid the security legislation is eroding media freedoms that have made Hong Kong a regional hub for global news organizations.

At the same time, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar was meeting President Tsai Ing-Wen, the highest-level American visit to Taiwan in more than 40 years. Although his trip's ostensibly about Taipei's widely-praised handling of Covid-19, Azar called its democracy "an inspiration to the region and the world."

Beijing warned today that Taiwan was the "most important and sensitive issue" between the two countries and later announced fresh sanctions on 11 Americans, including Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, and Human Rights Watch head Kenneth Roth.

Lai's arrest, meanwhile, could fuel another response from President Donald Trump's administration. It's announced plans to ban the popular Chinese-owned TikTok and WeChat services from the U.S. and on Friday slapped sanctions on senior Hong Kong officials, including Chief Executive Carrie Lam.

Yet senior Chinese officials — including Foreign Minister Wang Yi — have made conciliatory statements, urging Washington last week to "reject decoupling." Another top Chinese official urged the two sides to strengthen dialogue and communication, ahead of major U.S.-China trade talks expected this week. 

Stay tuned.

Iain Marlow 

Lai sits handcuffed in a vehicle as he is led away from his residence today by law enforcement officials in Hong Kong.

Photographer: Paul Yeung/Bloomberg

A global pandemic. Mass protests. Historic unemployment: This election will be unlike any other in U.S. history. Sign up to receive daily 2020 election updates as a direct mobile notification on Twitter. Simply click on this link and like the tweet.

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Global Headlines

No deal | There were plenty of casualties from failed negotiations on another trillion-dollar-plus rescue package for a U.S. economy mired in a historic, pandemic-induced recession. Worst hit are families, businesses, and state and local governments that have had a safety net pulled out from under them. The biggest political impact may be on Trump, who on Saturday took some modest steps to try to mitigate the economic fallout that are likely to face legal challenges.

  • The downturn initially had hints of being the sharpest but shortest U.S. recession on record. Now there are increasing signs of economic scarring that resemble past slumps.

Heating up | Turkey is holding naval exercises in an area off Greek islands where it plans seismic research for oil and gas exploration, as territorial frictions pick up in the energy-rich eastern Mediterranean. The drills come after Egypt and Greece signed a deal to lay out the maritime boundary between their exclusive economic zones, angering Ankara, which doesn't recognize Greece's claim its territorial waters start immediately south of the island of Kastellorizo.

Election anger | Riot police clashed with thousands of protesters in Belarus after Alexander Lukashenko claimed a sweeping presidential election victory to win a sixth term. He saw the biggest protests against his 26-year rule before the vote, in which challengers were jailed or kept off the ballot and election observers were restricted and detained. Opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya refused to recognize the outcome and said the majority was with the opposition. Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Lukashenko on his win.

Opposition supporters protest in Minsk yesterday.

Photographer: Sergei Gapon/AFP via Getty Images

Horse race | Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, two states Trump won in 2016 on the way to the White House, according to a CBS poll. Biden is in front 48% to 42% in Wisconsin and 49% to 43% in Pennsylvania. Days before Biden is expected to announce his running mate, a majority of voters suggested the pick was "not at all" or "not very" important to them.

  • Trump calls himself the "law and order" president, but when it comes to white collar crime, he has overseen a significant decline in enforcement.

Aid package | World leaders pledged almost $300 million to help support Lebanon following the catastrophic explosion that destroyed parts of the capital, as protests against the ruling class gathered strength. Officials stressed they will not be giving a blank check to the Lebanese government, which is bankrupt but has yet to agree on reforms necessary to secure a $10 billion International Monetary Fund loan program.

What to Watch This Week

  • Israel's coalition crisis may be defused after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Benny Gantz agreed to back a bill that would defer an August deadline for passing the budget.
  • Puerto Rico will partially redo yesterday's key gubernatorial primary election on Aug. 16 after ballots failed to arrive at some polling centers.
  • Trinidad and Tobago is holding parliamentary elections today amid soaring crime, a migration crisis and a recession, with polls showing Prime Minister Keith Rowley's ruling party holding a narrow lead.
  • German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz won the backing of the Social Democratic leadership to run as the party's candidate for the chancellorship in next year's election.
  • Pakistan's anti-graft court indicted former President Asif Ali Zardari on charges of corruption, as opposition groups accused Prime Minister Imran Khan's government of persecution.
  • Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara's decision to run for a third term as the leader of the world's top cocoa producer is galvanizing the opposition, clouding the odds for his re-election in October.

Thanks to all who responded to our pop quiz Friday and congratulations to Stephen Markscheid, who was the first to correctly answer that Italy is offering an almost $600 payment to anyone who buys bicycles, part of its post-virus stimulus measures.

And finally ... It's the question on the lips of parents across the world: Will schools reopen? While there's data showing that children probably won't become significantly ill from Covid-19, the evidence is less clear about how they transmit the virus. Concern in the U.S. has risen with news that child infections grew 40% in the last half of July, contradicting Trump's assertion they are "virtually immune." Returning to crowded classes may fuel the rise.

A closed playground stands at Solana Highlands Elementary School in San Diego, California, on July 10.

Photographer: Bing Guan/Bloomberg

 

 

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