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Brexit Bulletin: Summer of frustration

Brexit Bulletin
Bloomberg

What's Happening? Brexit talks resumed this week after a summer break, but we're no closer to a deal. 

The warning came from the European Union's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier: Britain and the EU may not be able to reach an agreement on their post-Brexit trading relationship by Dec. 31, when the U.K.'s current transitional arrangements expire. Barnier's words are a sign of how frustrated officials are at the lack of progress they have made in five months of on-off negotiations.

It was never supposed to be like this. Back in June, after Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke with the EU's top officials, there was hope in Brussels that a deal was in sight. But that optimism has given way to anger, with Barnier accusing the British of wasting time and failing to address EU concerns.

Read More: Why Brexit's Cliff Edge Is Like 'No Deal' All Over Again

The two sides can't get over the two big obstacles in the way of a deal: fishing rights and the concept of a level playing field on trade—in particular what subsidies Britain will be able to hand out to businesses after Brexit. "We still haven't seen from our British partners any willingness to take on board the EU's priorities," Barnier complained on Friday.

 

The EU is sticking to its principle of parallelism—refusing to negotiate the easiest issues unless the U.K. engages on the difficult bits first. That means the two sides can't even mark as complete the things they do agree on. If only the EU budged on this, the British say, a deal could be reached next month. Barnier's U.K. counterpart, David Frost, said the approach makes progress "unnecessarily difficult."

Where does this leave us? Expect to hear more from the U.K. about the level playing field in the coming weeks. Unless the two sides can bridge this gap, there can't be a deal: Barnier made that clear on Friday. On fishing, the two negotiators have made no progress—but it's possible the EU may be holding out until the last minute before offering any compromise.

But chances are growing that Frost and Barnier will need more time than the EU's October deadline allows.

— Edward Evans

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