Why would Trump oppose stimulus?

Follow Us Get the newsletter Get Jonathan Bernstein's newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. With all that's gone wrong with the Covid-19 pandemic, it's easy to miss something that went reasonably well: the three bills Congress passed in March to rev up the response to the crisis and provide economic relief. There's plenty to criticize in the details of the legislation. But if the most important thing was to move quickly, in the correct direction and with sufficient substance? Then Congress and President Donald Trump deserve considerable credit for getting it done. Add to that a supplemental bill to boost the Paycheck Protection Program and other funding in April, and everyone was off to a good start. Unfortunately, that momentum has totally stalled. The House passed its version of a "Phase 4" bill a while ago, which would've supplied more than $3 trillion in additional funding. But Senate Republicans have adopted a "wait and see" strategy on further relief, saying they want to judge the effects of previous rounds before spending more. They're still waiting, despite looming deadlines on expanded unemployment insurance and the PPP, as well as other seemingly urgent needs.  Trump, again to his credit, has talked about the need for further stimulus. But as with many aspects of public policy, he also takes the opposite position fairly often. So the biggest problem for the White House is that Trump hasn't backed up his activist position with any sense of urgency. Another problem is that the administration no longer has many experts the president could lean on for advice if he was willing to do so.  The result has been a series of proposals that seem borrowed from conservative movement boilerplate — really, a capital-gains tax holiday? — rather than designed for the specific circumstances the economy faces. The White House also appears to be leaning toward the smaller relief package that Senate Republicans favor. If that's what they're really going to fight for, there are two ways to read it. One is that Trump has been rolled (again) by orthodox Republicans. The other is that Trump is himself ambivalent about further stimulus measures, just as he's been ambivalent about acting aggressively to stem the pandemic. He seems to think that taking dramatic action to solve a problem is bad politics compared to pretending the problem doesn't exist.  (That may be one of the reasons Trump has been so reluctant to wear a mask. It also seems to account for for his antipathy toward Dr. Anthony Fauci, the infectious-disease expert who is currently being targeted by a bizarre White House smear campaign.) Of course, outside of Trump's strongest supporters, this isn't going to work — with evictions coming, small businesses throwing in the towel and what started as a surprisingly strong recovery now in danger of failing altogether, Trump should be desperate for ways to prop up the economy and stop the pandemic rather than counting on his ability to bluff his way through.  Perhaps he'll come around as negotiations continue. Although the delay has been damaging, a serious stimulus package now would still help. But if talks break down, with the virus on the rise in most states, there's a chance for some really scary outcomes for the economy over the next few months. Is Trump really going to take that risk in an election year? All the incentives say he won't — but if Trump followed normal incentives, the White House wouldn't be attacking Anthony Fauci right now.  1. Stephanie Bonnes at the Monkey Cage on ending sexual harassment in the military. 2. Christopher J. Fettweis on foreign policy after Trump. 3. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Barry Ritholtz on explaining the stock market rally. 4. Pam Fessler and Elena Moore on the problems with mail-in voting — the real ones, that is. 5. And Greg Sargent on Trump and Fauci. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close.   Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.   You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Early Returns newsletter. Unsubscribe | Bloomberg.com | Contact Us Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022