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The job market is still deep in the red

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Today's Agenda

Not enough of this happening.

Photographer: OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP/Getty Images

Jobs Climb a Little More Out of a Big Hole

4.8 million sounds like a big number, but it's all about context. Hand the average American worker $4.8 million, and they might have a heart attack from joy. But put that worker on a seven-month journey from Earth to Mars and tell them they've gone only 4.8 million miles, with about 50 million more to go, and they'll be less excited.

The U.S. economy is not traveling to Mars, but it is climbing out of a hole so very deeply deep that adding 4.8 million jobs in one month, as it did in June, doesn't even get it halfway out:

Readers with good eyesight may notice a tiny V-shape at the very end of that chart, but that probably isn't what people mean when they talk about a V-shaped recovery for the economy. As Justin Fox notes, the biggest job creators so far have been those industries designed for people still mostly hunkering down at home:

Justin points out the jobs created in the top two categories above still only make up for about 9% of those lost at restaurants and bars — places once again being locked down as Covid-19 rages anew. We're off to a good start, but this will be a long journey.

How to Stop Covid-19 Without a Vaccine

And it doesn't take a lockdown to make people stay home in a pandemic. As Noah Smith writes, coronavirus was already driving people back to their couches and kitchens even before restaurants and bars were closed again:

Hasty reopenings won't rescue Sun Belt economies where the virus is running wild. Only careful pandemic management can do that.

And at this point, pandemic management is not like, say, designing a rocket for a trip to Mars. The formula is pretty simple, writes Bloomberg's editorial board: Governors must take charge of their whole state's response (especially with the federal government snoozing) and actively boost mask use, social distancing and contact tracing. Too many governors aren't doing that, making it more likely they'll have to enact the harsher lockdowns everyone wants to avoid.

Some Northeastern states with better handles on Covid-19 are imposing quarantines on out-of-state travelers. This may kill the travel business in these states — sorry, Jersey Shore — but it will also help kill the pandemic by keeping people close to home, writes Faye Flam.

Further Coronavirus Reading: Gilead's remdesivir pricing might be fair, but we can't be sure because the industry keeps expenses under wraps, making proper valuation of critical drugs impossible. — Tim O'Brien

America's Rivals Make Mistakes Too

As if the U.S. didn't have enough problems, it has a couple of increasingly trouble-making rivals in China and Russia. But they're both courting blowback. China's recent crackdown on Hong Kong, for example, has inspired U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson — the same guy who sold Brexit as a way to keep out immigrants — to invite potentially millions of Hong Kong citizens into his country. This is absolutely the right thing for Johnson to do, writes Therese Raphael, even if following through will be difficult.

And recent Chinese aggression toward India could lead the latter country to shut its doors to the tech giants of the former, notes Tim Culpan, in a rich turnabout. China's own protectionism helped those very tech giants flourish, but now that they need to roam abroad for growth, doors are being shut on them.

China has bolstered its global reputation by throwing cash around in the Middle East and Africa. But even that is overhyped, writes Karen Young. China's investments have mainly been self-serving and selective, and still aren't as generous and strategic as investments from the U.S. and Europe.

As for Russia, it just gave Vladimir Putin the right to rule until 2036 — plenty of time to keep sowing chaos around the world, writes Hal Brands. But discord is about all Russia can manage at this point; it's no longer a true Great Power. And Putin's own power grab is mainly designed to shut up domestic critics at a time when doing and keeping his job is becoming increasingly difficult, writes Clara Ferreira Marques.

Telltale Charts

John Paulson returning investors' money is a sign of how hedge funds are fading as even past stars can't guarantee future results, writes Mark Gilbert.

YouTube's latest price increase is a sign of things to come in streaming media, writes Tara Lachapelle; if you want cable-like content, you'll have to pay cable-like prices.

Further Reading

President Donald Trump apparently thinks a fight over a Supreme Court seat will help him win re-election. But it would probably just further alienate moderate voters. — Jonathan Bernstein

Benjamin Netanyahu may not want Trump to lose, but then he also won't mind too much if Joe Biden wins. — Zev Chafets

Wirecard is a new PR headache for SoftBank, which already had plenty. — Shuli Ren

Too many more of these, and SoftBank won't have a reputation left to cash in on. — Matt Levine

Regulators must curb Google's use of personal fitness data before they let it buy Fitbit. — Alex Webb

ICYMI

Jeffrey Epstein's pal Ghislaine Maxwell was arrested.

Boeing quietly killed the 747.

How Nathan Tankus became a must-read Fed observer.

Kickers

Still-forming planet looks like flapping bat wings around a star. (h/t Ellen Kominers)

Enjoy fireworks, but try not to breathe around them. (h/t Mike Smedley)

Meet the caretakers of Sealand, the stubborn micronation.

Every movie released on the Fourth of July weekend, ranked.

Note: The newsletter will be off tomorrow and back on Saturday. Have a safe and happy Fourth.

Please send fireworks and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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