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Next China: Troops on the border

Next China
Bloomberg

China has strained relationships with a number of countries at the moment, though none looks quite so combustible as its ties with India.

New Delhi this week began preparations to deploy an additional 35,000 soldiers along its disputed border with China high in the Himalayan Mountains. It was along this "Line of Actual Control" that Indian and Chinese troops fought and killed one another less than two months ago.

Since that clash on June 15, both countries have bolstered their military presence in the area, even as commanders from the two sides have sought to deescalate tensions through several rounds of talks. But without rapprochement at the highest political level, it's difficult to imagine either army being willing to draw down its presence. 

The risk of a military conflict in this region is not new. India and China fought a war over the territory in 1962. Adding to the tensions have been China's longstanding support of India's nemesis Pakistan and more recently the extension of Beijing's influence in South Asia through its Belt and Road Initiative.

Reining in those points of contention was one reason why Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping had met for face-to-face summits in each of the past two years. It was as recently as October 2019 that Xi traveled to the seaside Indian town of Mamallapuram to meet with Modi, after the pair had done the same in Wuhan in April 2018.

But in hindsight, those efforts at stabilizing the relationship look insufficient, with both Beijing and New Delhi appearing to underestimate how quickly tensions could escalate. It's an outcome that Beijing would do well to factor into its other relationships.

Record High

Taiwan's benchmark stock index hit a record high this week, surpassing a mark that had stood for three decades. It was another sign of how resilient the local economy has been in challenging times. Taiwan, at least for now, has avoided becoming a casualty in the U.S.-China feud even though it's possibly the thorniest issue between the two. Instead, it has leveraged the tensions to convince Taiwanese businesses to move manufacturing and investment from mainland China back to the island. There's also been luck. Taiwan's largest company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp., was forced to stop supplying chips to Huawei, its second-biggest customer after Apple, because of the U.S. campaign against the Chinese tech giant. But then came news that Intel plans to outsource production of some of its chips, fueling speculation that much of that business would go to TSMC. That's when its stock and Taiwan's index hit new highs.

Office Space

China's economic recovery is far from robust, an observation borne out by the market for office space in the country's three most-important cities. Rates of vacancies in Shanghai and Shenzhen are at their highest since the global financial crisis in 2008. In Beijing, it has climbed to the worst since 2009. The culprit has of course been Covid-19, but the situation has been exacerbated by bad timing. A slew of new office space is coming onto the market just as many businesses, nervous about the uncertain economic outlook, are tapping the brakes on their expansion plans. Total office stock in Shenzhen, for example, is expected to surge 60% by 2023 from the end of 2019, according to Jones Lang LaSalle. It's no surprise that competition among landlords on rent is already getting fierce.

Tight Quarters

Hong Kong has long been known for having some of the world's most-cramped homes, including so-called micro-apartments that are the size of a Tesla Model X. This phenomenon has become an ever more pronounced public health issue as the city faces a resurgence in Covid-19 infections. The daily number of new cases has exceeded 100 everyday for the past week, and authorities have yet to identify the root source for the spreading virus. One strategy suited for such a situation would be a far-reaching lockdown that would force residents to stay home. But in a city where space is at a premium and where many people live in homes that combine kitchens, toilets and sleeping into one room, such an order would be "inhumane and impractical," according to one lawmaker. That could, unfortunately, make this latest wave of infections harder to control.

Chengdu Consulate

Hundreds of people in the southwestern Chinese city of Chengdu, better known for its spicy cuisine than geopolitical wrangling, came to see the closure of the U.S. consulate there this week. The shuttering of the mission was retaliation for Washington forcing Beijing to close its consulate in Houston and added to signs that bilateral ties are deteriorating quickly. Those tensions were reflected in the crowds that gathered. One 22-year-old said he'd traveled two and a half hours by train to show support for Beijing's decision. Another person who'd come to have a look bemoaned how insensible it was for the countries to endlessly blame each other. Most had come though out of curiosity and to snap a selfie. There was obviously something historic happening, but what it meant for the future was anyone's guess.

Onlookers gather to observe at a road block near the U.S. Consulate General in Chengdu, July 27.

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

What We're Reading

And finally, a few other things that caught our attention:

 

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