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A perfect storm

Balance of Power
Bloomberg

It's as if the coronavirus lit a fuse under the power keg of a crumbling world order.

Challenges that existed before Covid-19 — the lack of trust in institutions and big power rivalry — are being magnified tenfold by the

crises hitting healthcare and economies.

As Alan Crawford explains, the geopolitical map is being redrawn as it was in Potsdam at the close of World War II, when the seeds of the Cold War were sown.

Xi Jinping's China has replaced Russia as the second superpower, and it's facing a backlash for tightening its grip on Hong Kong and disputes with countries from India to Canada and Australia.

China's rival the U.S. has seen its influence wane under Donald Trump, who has taken potshots at everything from NATO to the Group of Seven and is increasingly consumed by a bitter campaign for re-election as the pandemic rages in America with catastrophic economic effect.

The virus has exposed the weaknesses of populist leaders from Brazil to the U.S. and the U.K., with their disastrous handling of the outbreak. Europe — more precisely Chancellor Angela Merkel's Germany — at times appears a lone sane voice in a cacophony of bickering.

Yet below the surface of state power, there are equally profound rumbles. The extraordinary street protests unleashed by the killing of George Floyd in police custody revealed many people's festering anger at injustice and authority in general.

It's a perfect storm, and how it plays out over the next six months will shape the post-virus era.

Karl Maier

Joseph Stalin, second left, Harry Truman, center, and Winston Churchill at Potsdam on July 17, 1945. 

Source: AFP/AFP

Click here for Bloomberg's most compelling political images from the past week and tell us how we're doing or what we're missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.

Global Headlines

Legal battlefield | Trump is seizing on a string of losses at the Supreme Court to galvanize his base through calls to remake the judiciary with more conservative judges. As Josh Wingrove and Jennifer Jacobs report, he's reviving an issue that fueled his first presidential run.

  • House Democrats again fell short in a high-profile attempt to dig into what they say is Trump's possible misconduct — this time with a failed strategy to access his financial records before the Nov. 3 election.

  • Trump heads today to coronavirus-stricken Florida for a political fundraiser and an anti-drug-trafficking event.

Diplomatic stumbles | Trump's diplomatic forays to resolve disputes from Africa to the Balkans haven't gone well. Following the president's failed bids to settle a long-running dispute over a Nile dam and bring Serbia and Kosovo to the negotiating table to heal one of Europe's most intractable standoffs, diplomats from the regions are moving to wrestle back control.

Tensions soar | China has vowed to retaliate after the U.S. sanctioned a top member of the Communist Party and three other officials for human rights abuses in the far western region of Xinjiang. The Trump administration's actions escalate tensions between the world's two biggest economies over the origin of the pandemic, Beijing's moves to quell dissent in Hong Kong and a debate over the use of Chinese technology by the U.S. and allies.

Euro shock | The smallest nations that use the European Union's common currency, the euro, staged an uprising to put one of their own in charge of finance ministers' meetings. Ireland's Paschal Donohoe won a secret ballot of 19 colleagues to become president of the Eurogroup, defeating the Spanish favorite, Nadia Calvino, who was backed by the EU's four biggest economies.

Naval drills | India plans to invite Australia to join its annual naval exercise that already includes Japan and the U.S., in a move that could risk China's ire. As Sudhi Ranjan Sen and Archana Chaudhary explain, the decision to involve Australia marks the first time all members of the grouping known as the Quad will be engaged at a military level, and comes amid a recent spike in border tensions between Beijing and New Delhi.

A fighter plane is catapulted from the U.S. super-carrier USS Kitty Hawk in the Bay of Bengal in 2007.

Photographer: Deshakalyan Chowdhury/AFP

What to Watch

  • The top American commander in the Middle East says he sees Iran's decision-making abilities in "disarray" after a U.S. drone strike killed a senior Iranian officer in January, Tony Capaccio reports.
  • Polish President Andrzej Duda is vying for a second term in a runoff vote Sunday that will decide whether the EU's biggest eastern member slides deeper into nationalism or serves as a warning for populists across the Atlantic and beyond.
  • Singaporeans are voting today as Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's party seeks to extend its 55-year rule amid the city-state's worst-ever recession.

Pop quiz, readers (no cheating!). Which country's prime minister died this week? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net.

And finally | Its hospitals are already overwhelmed with virus cases, and Pakistan now faces a shortage of oxygen cylinders. Prime Minister Imran Khan is under pressure after infections soared to the second-highest in Asia and close to a third of the parliament, including senior ministers, contracted Covid-19. As Faseeh Mangi explains, the dual impact of the epidemic and the country's first economic contraction in six decades is likely to hit Khan's already waning popularity.

Motorcyclists pass a banner paying tribute to health and medical workers in Islamabad on July 8.

Photographer: Aamir Qureshi/AFP

 

 

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