A Democratic Senate is looking more likely

Follow Us Get the newsletter Get Jonathan Bernstein's newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. The chances for Democrats to have unified party government with a real working majority in the Senate seem to be getting better by the day. As Jessica Taylor writes, in the five races that the Cook Political Report rates as toss-ups — Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Montana and North Carolina — Democrats out-raised Republicans by more than $18 million last quarter. Of course, there's still nothing like a guarantee that former Vice President Joe Biden will defeat President Donald Trump, but he does have a strong polling lead at this point so the possibility is worth thinking about. Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, and the one most likely to switch parties in November is Alabama, where fluky Democratic Senator Doug Jones will be going up against Tommy Tuberville, the former college football coach who won Tuesday's Republican primary. If Republicans win back that seat, then Democrats would need to win four of those five toss-up races to reach 50 and allow a theoretical Democratic vice president to let them organize the Senate. That alone would be a big deal. It's not clear how obstructionist Republicans would be if Biden is president and they cling to a small majority. But it's certainly possible that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell would take up where he left off in 2016 — confirming very few if any judges, and filling very few if any executive-branch positions. Biden might not even be able to put together a cabinet unless Democrats take 50 seats. And even 51 seats — what they'd get by sweeping the toss-ups — would make it difficult to get much done. However, the longer this election cycle goes on, the better the prospects for Democrats have looked. Right now, they not only have raised more money, but actually have an apparent polling lead in all five of those toss-up races, according to the RealClearPolitics averages, although several states (especially Montana) have had limited surveys so far. The Cook Report lists five more contests, including Alabama, as leaning Republican. If Trump really is down by nine points or so nationally, then it's possible Democrats could pick off one or two of them. And if Trump loses badly, the only lean-Democrat seat, Michigan, would be pretty safe; in fact, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters appears to have a solid lead there for now.  The real blowout possibilities start to kick in if Trump slips a little more. Then it starts to look possible for Democrats to win four of the five lean-Republican seats, or even one or two of the four likely Republican contests. In that case, the possibility of an aggressive legislative agenda starts to look much more likely.  I'll emphasize again: Just as it's possible that the presidential race remains where it is or gets somewhat better for Democrats, it's also possible for Trump to rally and win — or, even if he comes up short, for Republicans to do well enough to win most of these seats. But the fact remains that Republicans are extremely vulnerable in this cycle; they are, after all, defending 23 seats, including several in closely contested or marginally Democratic states, while Democrats are defending only 12. So the map is tilted toward Democratic gains. And if it's also tilted by a poor showing from the national Republican ticket, then things could get pretty ugly for Trump's party. 1. Dalia Dassa Kaye at the Monkey Cage on what Israel might be up to in Iran. 2. Dan Drezner on Trump's record on international economics. 3. Michael Tesler on enthusiasm and the election. 4. Reid Wilson on the fight against the pandemic. 5. Mike Konczal on conservative populists. 6. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Sarah Halzack on Walmart and masks. 7. Greg Sargent on Trump, competence and authoritarianism. 8. And I'm a day late on this, but the Texas primary run-off election was held on Tuesday, and I was one of a handful of people who braved the Election Day polling places. Governor Greg Abbott has made face masks mandatory, but polling places are one of a handful of exceptions — while Texas is also the rare state without no-excuse absentee voting. Fortunately, even though turnout was unusually heavy for a primary, most voters either were able to vote absentee or opted for in-person early voting. Here in Bexar County (San Antonio), only about a quarter of the vote was in-person on Election Day. So we wound up with plenty of polling places for relatively few voters. Things will be different in November, when hundreds of thousands of additional voters will have to be accommodated somehow. At any rate, I was the only one in my local polling place and the highly professional and patriotic poll workers had an almost touch-less experience set up (they were also wearing masks, which felt a bit safer). The usual statistics: I cast three more votes, which makes 44 in 2020. It was the fifth Election Day of the current two-year cycle, with a total of 57 votes, and the 11th Election Day of the four-year cycle, with a grand total of 202 votes. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. 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