| Get Jonathan Bernstein's newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. If former Vice President Joe Biden wins the November election, will Democrats really advance their legislative plans? Normally, I'd agree with those who point out the severe limitations the party will face. Barring an electoral landslide, the best Democrats can hope for would be 52 or 53 senators. That's great for confirming judges and executive-branch nominees, but it's not enough to overcome Republican filibusters — or to reform Senate rules to eliminate the need for supermajorities to get around filibusters in the first place. West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin isn't likely to support a significant expansion of the Affordable Care Act or a tough new climate bill or an expansion of the federal bench or statehood for Washington, D.C., and he probably won't vote to end the filibuster that prevents a slim Democratic majority from passing those things. Nothing new there; it's not hard to find liberal pundits who despair of the chances for significant legislation even if there's unified Democratic government in 2021. Except that 2021 isn't shaping up as normal at all. While President Donald Trump's team is pretending that the economy is roaring back and the pandemic is no longer a problem, in reality the country is likely to still be in very rough shape come January. There's a chance things will be significantly worse if Senate Republicans stick with their "wait and see" approach on further stimulus, especially if the pandemic is more robust than Trump seems to think. All this sets up the possibility that Democrats will try to pass an additional relief bill in January, while Republicans have the votes to block it. In 1993, Democrats were willing to let Senate Republicans defeat economic stimulus by filibuster when a recovery was well underway but job growth was still slow. In 2009, they were more than willing to compromise to bring three Senate Republicans on board to get to 60 votes for a relief bill. But it's hard to imagine any such deal being available this time, and it's likely that things will look a lot worse than they did in 1993. If that's the case, I suspect that a "nuclear option" of ending the filibuster will be plausible even if Democrats have only a slim majority. Of course, all this is speculative. It's possible that a new stimulus bill could pass next month. Trump might win re-election. Republicans could easily retain their Senate majority even if Biden becomes president. Or perhaps a quick recovery will make further stimulus irrelevant. But my strong guess is that the one thing most likely to unify a slim Senate Democratic majority with so much intensity that they'd be willing to change the rules would be a failing economy at the start of yet another Democratic presidency. 1. Hakeem Jefferson, Fabian Neuner and Josh Pasek at the Monkey Cage on public opinion about the George Floyd protests. 2. Hahrie Han on what's happening in Minneapolis. 3. James Wallner runs the numbers and finds that Republicans, not Democrats, are slowing confirmation of Trump's nominations. 4. Perry Bacon Jr. and Meredith Conroy on black identity. 5. Sarah Kliff on dentists and the economy. 6. Nate Cohn and Kevin Quealy on public opinion about Black Lives Matter. 7. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Cathy O'Neil on the data behind police violence. 8. And Jonathan Chait wonders whether Trump believes his own fantasies. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. | 
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