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This is how the dollar will fall

Bloomberg Opinion Today
Bloomberg

How the Coming Crash in the Dollar Will Unfold — Stephen Roach

Scorn has long been heaped on those daring to question the supremacy of the U.S. dollar as the world's dominant reserve currency. I certainly received more than my fair share in reaction to a column I recently wrote for Bloomberg Opinion on the likelihood of a sharp decline in the greenback. The counter-arguments were strong and highly political, basically boiling down to the so-called TINA defense — that when it comes to the dollar, "there is no alternative."

That argument is very important in one critical sense: The dollar, like any foreign-exchange rate, is a relative price. As such, it encapsulates a broad constellation of a nation's value proposition — economic, financial, social and political — as viewed against comparable characterizations of other nations. It follows that shifts in foreign-exchange rates capture changes in these relative comparisons — the U.S. versus Europe, the U.S. versus Japan, the U.S. versus China, and so on.

My forecast that a 35% decline in the value of dollar could well be in the offing is couched in terms of the comparison between the U.S. and the currencies of a broad basket of America's trading partners.

Read the whole thing. (And read Roach's previous column here.)

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This is the Weekend Edition of Bloomberg Opinion Today, a roundup of the most popular stories Bloomberg Opinion published this week based on web readership, plus some other stuff occasionally thrown in.

 

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