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One good jobs report doesn't fix everything

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That's the wrong shark.

Photographer: Archive Photos/Moviepix/Getty Images

A Great Jobs Report Is Only a Start

Early on in "Jaws," some fishermen catch a big tiger shark, so the mayor of fictional Amity declares its long shark-attack nightmare over. He is (spoiler alert) wrong. There's much more work to be done to make swimming safe again. The people that run the U.S. economy have just caught their tiger shark.

Nonfarm payrolls grew by an astounding 2.5 million last month, and unemployment fell to 13.3%, defying economists' forecast for far grimmer numbers. White House economic adviser Stephen Moore, playing the role of Amity Mayor Larry Vaughn, declared the country no longer needs fiscal stimulus, saying, "The sense of urgent crisis is very greatly dissipated by the report." Fortunately, President Donald Trump is still calling for more relief, but in a long Rose Garden news conference he also declared the country's triple crises — a pandemic, a near-depression and racial unrest — all but over.

None of them are. For the economy, May's job growth is a great start, but merely reflects businesses beginning to dig out of long lockdowns. Unemployment is still very high, and without more help for the economy, we face a grimmer repeat of the slow recovery after the Great Recession, warns Conor Sen.

White House triumphalism doesn't help avoid that outcome, especially considering Trump's fellow Republicans were already balking at more stimulus before this report, notes Jonathan Bernstein. Good luck convincing them to spend more now, though it is in their best political interest.

In that Rose Garden address, which did not practice good social distancing, Trump also suggested job growth was great for racial equality. And that would be true, except the jobs market is still treating black and Hispanic workers far worse than white ones, writes Mark Whitehouse:

On the plus side, lower-wage jobs enjoyed some of the bigger gains last month, as they were some of the first to go when the lockdowns began, writes Justin Fox. But higher-wage job growth was less encouraging, and some temporary layoffs became permanent. The months ahead could feel more like a recession to many people than the past couple of months have.

Financial markets chose to continue looking on the now-even-brighter side, with stocks bouncier than ever. Even the staid Treasury market shifted into a new gear, with higher interest rates and a steeper yield curve, signaling better economic times ahead, notes Brian Chappatta. But we'll still need that bigger boat.

Further Economics Reading:

Black Lives Matter at Work Too

What we've seen in America's streets over the past several days is a large popular backlash against chronic racism, a system in which black lives are routinely treated as less valuable than white lives. And it effects every person of color, regardless of background or class.

Frederick Baba sounds like the kind of African American white people might think immune to such pain. He's a well-educated son of successful immigrants and now a wealthy managing director at Goldman Sachs. But in an email to colleagues, adapted by Bloomberg Opinion, he writes about how his race has been an alarm ringing in the background of his entire life.

He grew up watching young black men, from Rodney King to Trayvon Martin, attacked with impunity. He suffered police profiling himself even after beginning his career as a trader. His colleagues have been supportive, he writes, but those of us who have never experienced racism as a menacing daily presence need to do much more to help our black co-workers, neighbors and friends escape this dismal cycle. Read the whole thing.

Brexit Regrets, Boris Johnson May Have a Few

Once upon a time, long, long ago, in early 2020, there was a thing we worried about, called "Brexit," which involved the U.K. leaving the European Union for a glorious independent future. The tables have turned. Europe has suffered terrible death and hardship in the pandemic, but it has also risen to the challenge by hitting its stride politically, writes John Authers. Not only have policy makers skillfully rescued the economy, they're even starting to knit the continent together into a more unified whole. A proposal for joint borrowing may even be the EU's "Hamilton" moment, bringing disparate countries together.

Those will not include the U.K., which has its own huge coronavirus headaches, but also must negotiate a way out of the union that doesn't wreck its economy even further. Getting such a deal done this year is nearly impossible, writes Therese Raphael, but politics also make it difficult for Prime Minister Boris Johnson to seek an extension. We could approach New Year's Eve worrying again about the consequences of a no-deal Brexit. Just like the good old days.

Bonus Boris Johnson Problem Reading: There's a good case for inviting Hong Kong citizens to flee to the U.K., but Johnson will have a hard time selling it. — Martin Ivens

Telltale Charts

Costco Wholesale Corp. isn't cheap, but it's just the kind of thing Warren Buffett usually spends his money on, writes Tara Lachapelle — and he has plenty of it.

Nobody loves traffic, but its return is a sign things are getting back to normal-ish, writes Ben Schott.

Further Reading

People are flying again, but planes are often too crowded to be safe. — Bloomberg's editorial board

Industrial stocks are pricing in a far faster rebound than CEOS expect. — Brooke Sutherland

Fed rescues are creating new moral hazards we must address when the crisis is over. — Bill Dudley

Yes, coronavirus lockdowns worked, and yes, there is proof. — Mark Buchanan

ICYMI

The Trump campaign pulled an ad that violated NASA rules.

Trump's going to Maine, despite warnings.

A quarantine-free visit to Iceland will cost an extra $115.

Kickers

If you see cops in action, start recording.

A study links fitful nightly sleep with chronic inflammation and hardened arteries.

Black holes are like a hologram.

People aren't as terrible as they seem.

Note: Please send sleep and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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