This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a tell-all book of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. Today's Agenda Turns out he was taking notes. Photographer: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images North America Bolton Vs. Trump John Bolton is one of those rare people unloved by both sides of our political divide. The right is angry about his betrayal of President Donald Trump. The left's long-standing animosity toward him was refreshed when he refused to testify against Trump in Congress. Now Bolton's got a book coming out, full of juicy details about the Trump administration, reportedly including a claim that the impeachment inquiry Bolton didn't bother to assist overlooked much more wrongdoing. Once again, things that could have been brought to our attention YESTERDAY, John Bolton. Anyway, rather than ignore Bolton's book and hope America's shared disdain for him would help it die quietly, Trump has chosen to Streisand Effect it by suing to stop its publication. No matter how you feel about Bolton, you shouldn't want Trump's attack on the First Amendment to succeed, writes Noah Feldman. Trump's lawyers have tried some tricks to avoid a straight-up constitutional violation, but they are weak, Noah writes. You may not want to buy Bolton's book, but he should be able to publish it. Economic Present Vs. Economic Future For a while now, Bloomberg Opinion writers have warned we shouldn't let data rebounding from depression-level readings lull us into thinking the U.S. economy was out of trouble. And so far, that's exactly what's been happening, at least in the stock market and among some policy makers. First, we had the May jobs report, which was wildly better than expected. More recently, we've seen bouncing retail sales and housing data spurring more optimism. But John Authers warns these numbers don't fully put into context just how deep of a hole the economy stumbled into back in March and how long it will take to climb out. Take that housing data, for example. Mortgage applications have soared in recent weeks, suggesting a V-shaped recovery. But Danielle DiMartino Booth writes this simply represents pent-up demand finally being unleashed from lockdowns. Meanwhile, lenders are tightening standards because they know the economy is still in a deep recession, which will eventually eat into home values and borrowers' ability to pay. Peter Orszag compares the economy to a beach town. Some think it's just closed for the winter and will return to life when the seasons change. But Peter thinks it's really a beach town under threat of shark attack (a favorite BOT metaphor). Until the coronavirus — the shark in this scenario — is actually defeated, we can't fully reopen. Further Economics Reading: Congress should expand Pell Grants to keep low-income students from dropping out of college. — Bloomberg's editorial board Fed Vs. Markets Along with the bouncy economic data, central-bank largesse has helped keep markets frothy. As we mentioned yesterday, this constant frothing is not cost-free. For example, the Fed's latest gift to markets is a promise to directly buy corporate bonds. But the European Central Bank's experience shows that once you jump on the bond-buying train, it's almost impossible to get off, warns Marcus Ashworth. The Fed has experience with markets rebelling at efforts to take away goodies. In the "taper tantrum" of 2013, markets threw their sippy cups against the wall because the Fed dared to dial back quantitative easing. Now think about all the stuff the Fed has given markets lately — along with the potential for more in the form of "yield-curve control" — and imagine the tantrum that could arise from taking any of that away, writes Brian Chappatta. Keeping businesses from failing because of pandemic lockdowns that weren't their fault makes perfect sense. But at some point you have to let the natural process of creative destruction happen, warns Noah Smith. Otherwise you end up with hordes of zombie companies and a moribund economy. China Vs. India The rest of the world is an increasingly dangerous place, we've been reminded this week. For one thing, India and China got into a skirmish in the Kashmir region that may have killed soldiers on both sides. India arguably started the latest spat in a long-running feud, but China has reacted aggressively, which James Stavridis writes is in keeping with its general approach to the whole world these days. China may want to force the U.S. to back away from India, but James writes it should instead pull India closer, while also fixing its muddled approach to China. Despite Trump's best personal efforts, America's relations with Russia are souring too, as exemplified by the latter nation's sentencing Paul Whelan to prison this week on trumped-up (no pun intended) espionage charges. Russia wants a prisoner exchange, but Eli Lake writes Trump should think twice about encouraging more of this behavior. Telltale Charts Bringing Emma Watson onto the board is a coup for Gucci owner Kering SA, given her strong association with sustainable fashion. As Andrea Felsted writes, younger generations of luxury shoppers want companies to care about that stuff. Before the pandemic, restaurant dining had overtaken eating at home, notes Justin Fox. Once the pandemic is gone, that trend will recover. Further Reading Liberals cheered Neil Gorsuch's textualism in the gay-rights case, but they may not like it if affirmative action comes up for review. — Cass Sunstein It's neither fair nor good political strategy to mock Trump's infirmities. — Jonathan Bernstein We need better network-performance data, to avoid situations like a T-Mobile outage triggering panic about a cyberattack. — Tara Lachapelle Once the rest of Europe resented Greece for imposing its problems on them. Now it's Greece's turn. — Ferdinando Giugliano You'd think getting everybody out of the workplace would end workplace harassment and bullying. In fact, in some cases it has made such behavior worse. — Elisa Martinuzzi ICYMI Boris Johnson had a bad day. New Zealand let coronavirus back into the country. Sweden is struggling to develop herd immunity. Kominers's Conundrums Hint If you've so far had a hard time solving the hidden puzzle, maybe clock another few minutes on it today. Take another look at that mysterious disk in the column: Does it look like anything familiar? And once you figure out what the disk represents, how could it relate to previous Conundrums? Also, two logistical notes for solvers: While this Conundrum does require "traveling through time" to look at previous columns, don't worry if you hit the paywall; all the information needed for solving should still be visible. And don't forget that Bloomberg Opinion Today is published in New York. — Scott Duke Kominers Kickers Dark matter experiment finds an unexplained signal that could be either noise or revolutionize physics. Galaxies may have grown from quantum static. Five women who deserve to have Army bases named after them. How movies will get made in a pandemic. Note: Please send quantum static and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. |
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