| It's tempting to look for mitigating explanations for growing Covid-19 case counts in states like Arizona, Texas, and Florida, whether you're a day trader or want life to get back to normal. Unfortunately, there's no getting around the fact that this resurgence is concerning. If states want to curb cases without resorting to blunt measures like broad lockdowns, they need to move quickly. Reopening only works if people feel safe. Ever-rising positive test rates belie the notion that expanded testing is to blame. The less concerned crowd also points out that there are still hospital beds to spare and that death rates remain low, possibly because outbreaks are skewing younger. Each one of these things is true, to a certain extent. None of them are good excuses to avoid action. Outbreaks don't politely distribute themselves according to available beds, a reality which is already manifesting itself in reports of filling intensive care units in Houston. Hospital stays for severe Covid infection are often quite lengthy, which means that beds are quicker to fill than empty. Deaths lag even severe outbreaks due to sometimes lengthy stays in hospital, and inconsistent reporting. When cases surge, mortality may not follow right away, but it is likely to at some point.  Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, wears a protective mask during a House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing in Washington on Tuesday. Photographer: Sarah Silbiger/Bloomberg The lower median age of those testing positive in some states may lower death rates in the near-term, though it's early to make that call, according to top U.S. infectious disease scientist Anthony Fauci. However, if the thesis proves out, enough younger cases will still lead to bad outcomes, potential long-term health consequences, and make it dramatically harder to protect higher-risk and older individuals. The data make it pretty clear that some states opened too broadly and incautiously, with too much Covid circulating. Cracking down on businesses that don't require distancing, closing those like nightclubs that never should have been opened, boosting contact-tracing and isolation efforts and enforcing broad mask use can significantly reduce transmission risk. Such efforts take time to have an effect and get less effective as case counts grow; a sense of urgency is overdue. If preventing further lockdowns isn't enough motivation to act, the economic case should help. If current attitudes and infrastructure can't keep cases down now, with a relatively low level of activity and large gatherings, how do states expect to open schools and hold bigger events in the fall?—Max Nisen | 
Post a Comment