This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a reserve currency of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. Today's AgendaNot having its best century. Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg America's Not Having a Great CenturyThe 20th century may have been the American Century, but the 21st century so far seems to be all about finding a replacement. It hasn't been so easy being the global hegemon these past couple of decades. Two major wars, three recessions, a pandemic and some terrorist attacks, to name just a few problems, will do that. The U.S. still has the world's biggest military by far, and it also has the world's reserve currency, both of which do paper over a lot of ills. But Stephen Roach warns soaring budget deficits, falling consumer savings and souring relations with China — one of America's biggest creditors — all add to the risk the dollar's value will crash. Many past warnings of Buckpocalypse have failed to come to pass. But if there's a breaking point, by golly, America seems determined to find it, especially lately. One major threat to the dollar, Roach warns, is America's diminished global leadership under President Donald Trump. Not only has he picked a needlessly destructive fight with China, he has also torn into the scaffolding of global organizations and alliances that have buttressed American influence for decades. Most recently he threatened to pull troops out of Germany, possibly because Angela Merkel hurt his feelings. It's true Germany isn't always the best partner, writes Andreas Kluth, but wrecking the relationship between these two defenders of democracy would be disastrous for the world. Authoritarians would cheer. Trump has also joined a global pile-on against the World Trade Organization, weakening its ability to settle disputes and expand trade. America still needs those services, Bloomberg's editorial board writes. Trump's animosity seems driven by nationalism, but attacks like these only weaken the nation in the long run. Main Street Vs. Wall Street II: This Time It's PersonalOne of the worst things the Great Recession did was turn Wall Street and Main Street against each other. Bankers set all our money on fire but got bailouts, while civilians were kicked out of their houses. Stocks soared, but the benefits took a decade to trickle down to low-wage workers. The resulting public hostility may have helped put Trump in the White House. And the current recession may make all that look like a preschool picnic. You already see a harbinger of it in the stock market, which has soared even as millions lose their jobs, the coronavirus spreads, and the president responds to protests with conspiracy theories and force. You can't blame the stock market, though, writes Nir Kaissar: It is always disconnected from the economy because its job is to track corporate profits, not employment, GDP or the national mood. Still, the Federal Reserve has been an agent of inequality in each of the past recessions, rescuing markets and asset prices but struggling to work the same magic for normal humans, writes Brian Chappatta. There's got to be a better way. Brian has some ideas. Further Economics Reading: The economy still needs a whole bunch of fiscal stimulus, which will start to expire soon. — Peter Orszag Ignoring a Pandemic Doesn't Cure It, Says ScienceBrazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has discovered a miracle cure for Covid-19: simply pretend it doesn't exist. Actually, as we learned when we were babies and developed object permanence, things still exist even when we don't see them. But Bolsonaro has decided the best solution to Brazil's massive pandemic problem — now the world's second-worst after America's — is to stop reporting the numbers, writes Mac Margolis. Not only will this not work, putting more Brazilian lives at risk, it's also the latest attack on Brazil's vaunted medical profession. Again, short-term nationalism will result in long-term pain. Telltale ChartsWhether the economy is growing or shrinking, whether the world is at war or peace, whether there's a pandemic or an alien invasion, it will always be a good time for mergers and acquisitions, writes Tara Lachapelle. The recent lull is only temporary. Further ReadingAs his poll numbers crater, Trump just keeps making life more difficult for himself. — Jonathan Bernstein Netanyahu appears to want to take what he likes from Trump's peace plan and leave the rest, destroying the plan. — Zev Chafets Britain has its own long-festering racism problem, exemplified by Edward Colton's statue. — Therese Raphael Here's what you need to know before booking a vacation in a pandemic. — Alexis Leondis ICYMIThe WHO backtracked on its silent-spreader backtrack. New Jersey started to repoen. If you thought Tesla's stock price was wild, meet Nikola. Kominers's Conundrums HintIf you're still looking for a breakthrough in this week's chocolate-breaking Conundrum, maybe ask yourself: Which ways of splitting up the bar give us the most pieces at each step? Or you could start from the endgame: We know we'll have 38,324 pieces in the end; what has to happen right before that last step? — Scott Kominers KickersHere's what you'll need in a space pharmacy. You may soon be working in a sealed pod, as nature intended. (h/t Scott Kominers for the first two kickers) Britain has gone two months without coal power. Learn to read Middle English. Note: Please send space drugs and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. |
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