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From bad to worse

Balance of Power
Bloomberg

As bad as U.S.-China ties look now, things could get even worse this week.

China's top legislative body is expected to pass a national security law for Hong Kong tomorrow that could include life sentences for anyone found guilty of offenses like secession and subversion.

Beyond eroding key freedoms that underpin the city's success as a financial hub, the move could unleash further tit-for-tat actions between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

Relations between the world's biggest economies have plummeted since a phase-one trade deal was clinched in January, due mostly to a global pandemic that has eroded Trump's re-election prospects. With trade well below the agreed targets, the countries have blacklisted each other's companies, barred flights and expelled journalists.

Trump last month vowed a tough response to China's Hong Kong law, and the U.S. unleashed a preemptive blow on Friday with visa bans on certain Communist Party officials.Today China reciprocated in kind.

The big question is just how much things could deteriorate. Trump could do everything from sanctioning individual Chinese officials to completely undermining Hong Kong's financial stability. Bernard Chan, a top adviser to Hong Kong's leader, told Bloomberg TV today that the more extreme scenario would simply be "lose-lose."

Still, as Trump's popularity falls, he may decide the risk is worth it.

Daniel Ten Kate

A picture taken in October 2017 of a local football fan.

Photographer: Anthony Wallace/AFP via Getty Images

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Global Headlines

Ominous march | Deaths from the coronavirus worldwide topped 500,000 and infections surged past 10 million, two chilling reminders that the deadliest pandemic of the modern era is stronger than ever. The infection milestone is a rebuff to health experts and leaders — including Trump — who had hoped the virus would fade with the summer heat. The U.S. and Brazil together represent 49% of all new infections.

  • You can read the latest news on the pandemic here.

Report rebuff | Trump said U.S. intelligence officials told him a report that the Russian government paid bounties for American and allied troops to be killed in Afghanistan wasn't credible, and therefore they didn't brief him about it. It's emerged as yet another political crisis for Trump, drawing fresh attention to his efforts to build warmer relations with the Kremlin.

  • The president yesterday deleted a twitter post he'd shared of a verbal confrontation between anti-Trump protesters and his supporters, including a man who yelled "white power."

Another rift | Tokyo doesn't support inviting South Korea to an expanded Group of Seven meeting Trump has proposed for later this year, amid long-running disputes with Seoul over Japan's wartime occupation and tensions over how best to deal with China and North Korea. Trump's suggestion that Russia also attend has already raised opposition from G-7 members like Germany, because Moscow was booted from the group for its 2014 annexation of Crimea.

Green surge | French local elections sounded a warning for President Emmanuel Macron, with his party defeated in the Paris mayoral race and Green Party candidates winning in several major cities. With Macron under pressure for his Covid-19 crisis response, the results will refocus attention on his pledge to "reinvent" himself and lead the post-pandemic recovery ahead of a presidential election in 2022.

  • Click here to read about the power struggle for Spain's best-selling newspaper, which has potential implications for Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo at Notre Dame Cathedral after a fire in April 2019. Hidalgo, known for her bike-friendly push to reduce the city's vehicle traffic and tighten speed limits, took most of the vote in yesterday's race, exit polls show.

Photographer: Christophe Morin/Bloomberg

Polish fate | Voters denied Polish President Andrzej Duda quick re-election, forcing him into a runoff that risks halting a nationalist makeover of the European Union's biggest formerly communist member. The second-round ballot — which opinion polls suggest is too close to call — will decide whether the country will complete a five-year drive that has put it at odds with the bloc's democratic and multicultural values.

What to Watch This Week

  • Vladimir Putin is seeking a green light to be able to extend his presidency until 2036 in a vote Wednesday to amend Russia's constitution.
  • U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to give a major speech tomorrow as he seeks to reset his agenda after three months of lockdown battered the economy.
  • EU governments will seek a deal today on extending an incoming travel ban for residents of most non-European countries, including the U.S.
  • Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel meet near Berlin today to discuss the EU stimulus package.
  • Britain's chief Brexit negotiator, David Frost, and the EU's deputy chief negotiator, Clara Martinez Alberola, meet today in Brussels for the first time since March, with six months to go before the U.K. finally breaks its ties with the bloc.

Thanks to all who responded to our pop quiz Friday and congratulations to Katya Sharma, who was the first to correctly name Singapore as the next Asian nation to hold a national election during the pandemic. And a shout out to Claire Riley, who pointed out that Singapore will actually be the third in Asia to do so (after South Korea and Mongolia).

And finally ... One of Europe's longest-serving leaders is facing discontent inspired by an unusual icon: an almost century-old portrait, the owner of which is running for president from prison. Alexander Lukashenko has robust opposition before Belarus's August vote from ex-banker Viktor Babariko, who was jailed in a tax-evasion and money-laundering probe this month. As Marc Champion and Aliaksandr Kudrytski report, protesters are swarming social media with versions of "Eva," a painting seized with the rest of a $20 million art collection, to express frustration with Lukashenko's 26-year rule.

'Eva' by Chaim Soutine

Photographer: Пользователь/Belgazprombank Collection

 

 

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