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Coronavirus mission very much not accomplished

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Today's Agenda

This reminds us of a beach-opening metaphor.

Photographer: Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images North America

Second Wave Accomplished

For years, George W. Bush's "Mission Accomplished" speech was the gold standard of premature celebrations. It's about to be eclipsed by America's end-zone dance over coronavirus.

Instead of a big, dumb banner, the latest visualization of deadly hubris is this chart:

The first wave of America's Covid-19 pandemic may or may not have ended, but its second wave is already worse. Early hot spots such as New York have stomped their curves nearly flat, but case loads are hitting record highs in Florida, Texas and elsewhere. In Europe, economies stayed shut until new cases fell to manageable levels, writes Max Nisen. In the U.S., the slightest curve-flattening was taken as a sign the virus was as good as dead. At President Donald Trump's urging, too many states ended lockdowns too quickly, often after barely imposing them in the first place. We're living with the result.

Animating the drive to reopen was the belief lockdowns hurt the economy too much, that there was a hard trade-off between protecting people and protecting jobs. This was always dubious, writes John Authers, and we can see the proof in how the economies of Sweden and some less-stringent U.S. states have responded. They didn't benefit and may have even suffered more. Until we stop the virus, people will fear engaging with the economy.

Of course, many young party animals in Florida thought they had nothing to fear when bars reopened there. Joe Nocera looks at that state's data and argues disaster isn't "right around the corner," citing the relative youth of those being infected. (Then again, the governor did just re-close those bars.)

America also seems to have collectively decided its front-line health-care workers have all the personal protective equipment they need. Remember when that was a thing? In fact, in much of the country, it still very much is. And workers can still get fired for complaining about it. Trump'sOSHA hasn't bothered to protect these workers, write Michele Heisler and Ranit Mishori. So states must fill the gap with stronger standards and the power to enforce them.

Further Lockdown Reading: Many older kids dropped out during school closures in a 1916 polio epidemic. We can't let that happen again. — Stephen Mihm

Nike Has Bad News for Retailers

We all know this is an abysmal century to be an apparel retailer, but Nike Inc. was supposed to be an exception. It's Nike! Come on. People all over the world wear Nike. It figured out online sales years ago. Even a pandemic shouldn't be a problem; people still want to run and walk, and now they can wear sweatpants to business meetings.

That makes this ugly chart even uglier:

For the bar-chart-illiterate, Nike's sales cratered in the latest quarter, way worse than anybody expected. As Sarah Halzack points out, this is a dire warning for the many apparel retailers that don't have many of Nike's advantages. That would be … just about all of them?

Further Coronavirus Vs. Brands Reading: It's just as well Microsoft Corp. is closing all its stores; they never made sense anyway. — Tae Kim

The Market Should Pull for Biden

Of the many fears people had about a Trump presidency on Election Night 2016, one that didn't come true is that he would crash the stock market. Ever since, in fact, the market has worried Trump's un-election would crash it. Both anxieties are unfounded.

Stocks kept rising for much of Trump's term, as traders celebrated tax cuts and deregulation, which they considered pro-growth. They even withstood Trump's endless trade wars. Then the pandemic happened, and now a Joe Biden presidency is a growing possibility. That doesn't sound like a recipe for communism, but traders fear Trump's policies getting unwound will be bearish. But if current trends hold (an ENORMOUS "if"), then Biden could take office with a Democratic Congress in the middle of what could be a nascent economic depression. They could seize that opportunity to shift Trump's tax cuts more to the middle class, spend on infrastructure and otherwise shower the economy with cash, writes Conor Sen. There's an old saw about the economy outperforming under Democratic presidents, which by luck or design happens to be true. With today's GOP reluctant to spend much more on a mortally wounded economy, you can imagine it being proved true again.

Further Politics Reading:

Telltale Charts

We may be at or near Peak Beef, which is good news for the planet, writes David Fickling.

Most people around the world admire and seek democracy, writes Ben Schott. But few think they live in one.

Further Reading

Benjamin Netanyahu may want Trump's OK to annex parts of the West Bank, but this would be disastrous for Israel's security. — Bloomberg's editorial board

Trump's antitrust chief keeps favoring the whims of Trump and Barr over real antitrust concerns. — Joe Nocera

The Fed's banking stress tests aren't nearly stressful enough. — Natasha Sarin

Salary histories perpetuate inequality; states should bar employers from seeking them. — Noah Smith

Brands should abandon Facebook Inc. altogether until the company changes its ways. — Alex Webb

The next airline bailouts should come with climate conditions attached. — Brooke Sutherland

ICYMI

Australia may close its borders until mid-2021.

Kanye West will sell a new clothing line at Gap.

An entire Old West town is for sale, in New Zealand.

Kickers

A $0 budget Zoom movie is America's box-office winner this week. (h/t Ellen Kominers)

A warming Arctic is becoming a hotbed of spiders. (h/t Mike Smedley)

Why birds can fly over Mt. Everest.

The top 100 Rick Rubin-related albums, ranked.

Note: Please send Zoom movies and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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