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Brexit Bulletin: Let’s talk (all) summer

Brexit Bulletin
Bloomberg

What's happening? Talks are stepping up a gear with both sides more optimistic a deal can be struck. Will the good mood last?

They did it. Monday's meeting between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen clears the way for six more weeks of intensive negotiations on the shape of future ties between the U.K. and European Union. Johnson says he wants a deal by July—but both sides now accept the real deadline is more likely to be October.

Boris Johnson (center) talking to EU leaders on June 15.

Photographer: Andrew Parsons / No10 Downing St/No10 Downing Street

Did one call change everything? It has certainly injected fresh momentum into the process, with new hopes of compromise. But the obstacles remain just as intractable. While there were signs this week that the EU is preparing to soften its demands over fishing and the level playing field, big battles loom over the role of the European Courts in any bargain, and how any agreement is structured. So if the political will to strike a deal exists on both sides, we still don't know if there is a way to get there.

Nevertheless, businesses are still in the dark about what they will face on Jan. 1. The U.K. government has tried to help assuage their concerns by saying there won't be checks on most imports from the EU for six months. (The EU has refused to return the favor.) Britain is also preparing what it calls a "shock and awe" ad blitz to encourage firms to prepare.

The coronavirus has made doing that even more complicated: Bloomberg News reported this week on how Wall Street's best-laid plans to get staff across the English Channel could be thwarted if a second wave of Covid-19 forces Europe's doors shut again.

For Johnson, the pandemic provides another reason to reach a deal. Jill Ward looked this week at the "Red Wall"—the traditionally Labour-voting areas where poverty, Brexit and Covid collide. They helped Johnson win the last election, but are already set to pay the highest economic price from the pandemic. That's something a messy break with the EU would only compound.

It's a reminder of how the prime minister is coming under pressure from more than one direction.

Edward Evans

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