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Beijing’s bold new power play

Turning Points
Bloomberg

Tough on China? Huddled with Xi Jinping at a G20 gathering in Japan, U.S. President Donald Trump told the Chinese leader that building internment camps for Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang is "exactly the right thing to do," according to John Bolton's new tell-all book.

In another revelation from the book, the former national security advisor says Trump begged Xi to buy U.S. farm products to help him win re-election. 

This, mind you, is a Republican president who has accused his Democratic opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden, of being soft on China. Yet a few words from Xi convinced Trump to save the Chinese electronics giant ZTE, facing commercial death after being convicted of busting U.S. sanctions against Iran and North Korea.

No wonder, as Bloomberg's Peter Martin reports, many Chinese officials would like to see Trump win another four years in office. The way they look at it, the damage he's inflicted on America's relations with its closest allies is worth all the chaos and aggravation he's created in trade, investment, technology and other areas of the economic relationship.

This week in the New Economy

  • China to speed U.S. farm purchases after secretive Hawaii talks.
  • Oil resumes weekly winning streak on gradual demand recovery.
  • China's Hong Kong law may merit court action EU parliament says.
  • Boeing whistle-blower faults "reckless" FAA review of 737 Max.
  • Immigration spurs economic growth in advanced nations, IMF says.

What could be more corrosive of the trust that underpins U.S. alliances—the bedrock of American global power—than a president who puts his own personal political interests above those of his country?

This helps to explain why Taiwan's leader, Tsai Ing-wen, is so wary of the rising pro-Taiwan fervor in the White House; she worries that Trump could end up tossing the island onto the table as a bargaining chip with Beijing. 

China's President Xi Jinping (L) and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Nov. 9, 2017.

Photographer: Fred Dufour/AFP

Other Asian nations have been doubly careful to avoid taking sides for similar reasons as China and the U.S. fall into a new Cold War. The European Union is also strenuously trying to balance between the world's two leading powers. A fickle U.S. president raises the risk of offending China, the only major economy in the world likely to grow this year. Nobody wants to be left high and dry by Trump.

That said, China has let this geopolitical opportunity go to waste. An obvious play for Beijing would be to present itself as a steadfast economic partner to U.S. friends, as well as fence-sitters, especially now that Covid-19 has brought the global economy to its knees. Even though China is widely blamed for its early mishandling of the virus, it is now leading the global recovery and has money to invest around the world.

Instead, with its neighbors and trading partners struggling against the pandemic, Beijing is making a bold new power play. Bare-knuckle brawling between Indian and Chinese troops on Himalayan cliff-tops this week, writes Bloomberg Opinion columnist Mihir Sharma, is China's attempt to put India in its place "but not so harshly that it seeks out the embrace of the United States." Nevertheless, Sharma sees an "unmistakable swing" toward the U.S. in New Delhi, particularly on defense.

A Chinese navy formation during military drills in the South China Sea on January 2, 2017.

Photographer: STR/AFP

The South China Sea is again a tinderbox, with Chinese ships in standoffs with fishing and oil exploration vessels from Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia.

China's relations with Canada are likely to plunge further after a Chinese court indicted two Canadians on spying charges on Friday. In Canada, the pair are widely viewed as political hostages, held as punishment for the 2018 arrest of a senior Huawei executive.

Meanwhile, European countries are putting up barriers to Chinese investment, suspicious that China will take advantage of corporate desperation by launching state-funded takeovers of high-tech assets .

What is Trump's next move on China? Predictably, he's launched a Twitter blitz to try to trash his former aide and rescue his tough-on-China credentials: "Complete decoupling" remains an option, he declared. Xi isn't likely to pay much attention: By now, he may suspect it's all a bluff.

A persistent red herring put about by U.S. hawks on China is that technological decoupling will make America safer. 

In fact, it will have the opposite effect, as New Economy Forum delegate Eric Schmidt explained to the BBC. If China is pushed off global tech platforms, it will simply create its own, argues the former Google chief executive, and "it is in the West's interest that every technology platform has Western values in them."

Likewise, this piece by Carl Bildt, the former Swedish foreign minister, is worth reading. Faced with a more assertive China, he argues "Europe can no longer count on the U.S. as a reliable, like-minded partner." It's strategy toward China should rest on two pillars: Engagement on areas of common concern (like climate change) and "stronger mechanisms to screen Chinese investment in sensitive European sectors and to ensure fair competition between European firms and Chinese state-subsidised corporations."

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