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Banks sanctioned

Five Things - Asia
Bloomberg

The Senate approves sanctions on banks that do business with Chinese officials. Wirecard files for insolvency. And the office market in Hong Kong is looking grimmer than ever. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.

Sanctions Sanctioned

On Thursday, the U.S. Senate approved a bipartisan measure that would penalize banks doing business with Chinese officials involved in the national security law the country is seeking to impose on Hong Kong. Companion legislation has been introduced in the House with bipartisan support, but it would need to pass that chamber before it reaches President Donald Trump's desk. "The mandatory sanctions established in this bill will punish those in China who seek to undermine Hong Kong's autonomy or erode the basic freedoms promised to Hongkongers," Toomey said in a statement. Congress has been increasingly assertive in trying to pressure China as tensions escalate between the world's two largest economies. Earlier this month, Trump signed legislation aimed at punishing Chinese officials for oppression of Uighurs and members of other Muslim minority groups.

End Of The Road?

Wirecard filed for insolvency, the culmination of a stunning accounting scandal that led to the arrest of its CEO and left the German payment-processing firm unable to find over $2 billion missing from its balance sheet. Management cited over-indebtedness as the reason behind the decision to seek court protection in Munich, according to a statement. The company also said it's considering whether the insolvency proceedings should be applied to its subsidiaries. Wirecard said it was unable to come to an agreement with lenders and was now facing the likely termination of 800 million euros of loans on June 30 and that of another loan of 500 million euros on July 1. But that's not all: Now, Visa and Mastercard are considering revoking Wirecard's ability to process payments on their networks, moves that could cause further pain for the fintech firm on top of the accounting scandal.

Markets Lift

Asian stocks looked poised for gains after a late rally on Wall Street, as investors weighed the prospects for additional stimulus against the spike in U.S. virus cases. Futures in Japan and Australia pointed higher. The S&P 500 climbed about 1%, jumping in the final hour of a choppy session. Treasuries and the dollar ended Thursday flat. Banks surged after regulators eased rules that will free up capital, though they slid after hours as the Federal Reserve told the biggest lenders they can't increase dividends or buybacks for now. Investors also grappled with a mixed batch of economic data, after initial jobless claims topped estimates at almost 1.5 million. Elsewhere, oil prices rose after Russia slashed exports of its flagship crude Urals to the lowest in at least 10 years. Gold was little changed.

Office Agony

In a market where buying and selling individual floors can lead to quick profits, this year, just three deals have taken place in Hong Kong's Lippo Centre — a gauge for the health of the world's most expensive office market. That's down from as many as 18 in the first half of 2017, the most active of recent years. There's no shortage of reasons for the downturn. Hong Kong is in its deepest economic funk on record as last year's investment-chilling anti-government protests were followed by the coronavirus shutdowns. Now disquiet over China's national security laws has rattled the city anew, stoking concern it will lose its status as a regional financial hub and drawcard for expats. The dearth of activity augurs poorly for the broader office market, where these strata-title transactions for a portion of a building typically account for about 40% of all deals by value. Office valuations in the city may slump as much as 20% this year, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.

Turnaround Man

Alan Joyce pulled Qantas Airways back from the brink once before. Now he's signed up to do it again, but under much tougher circumstances. This time round, Joyce aims to reduce A$15 billion ($10.3 billion) in costs over three years and then deliver A$1 billion in annual savings from June 2023. So far, Joyce is following his playbook of old. He plans to cut at least 6,000 jobs — about 20% of the workforce — while some 15,000 employees will remain furloughed. He's grounding the entire fleet of 12 giant Airbus A380s for at least three years and deferring a backlog of other aircraft deliveries. "It reads like another transformation," said Daniel Mueller, a fund manager at Vertium Asset Management in Sydney. "I don't see any reason not to back him. He's done one and now he's going to do another."

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours:

And finally, here's what Adam's interested in this morning

Market turning points are notoriously hard to predict. But it is always worth looking at some of the internal functioning within equities markets to see whether something may be about to change.

Take the gauge of market breadth on the Nasdaq Composite Index. The number of members trading above their 50-day moving average is down from a peak reached earlier in June, as shown in this chart from my colleague Cormac Mullen. This comes just as the Nasdaq itself heads for its best quarter since 2001, up about 30%.

This breadth indicator will be important to watch in the final few days of this quarter, especially if we see the grave health crisis in the U.S. reach a tipping point. Remember that the VIX index, currently at 32.2, remains significantly above its five-year average of about 17. Expect more market drama in the not too distant future.

 

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