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America swallowed the key to escaping the pandemic

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Today's Agenda

Just take the mask, already.

Photographer: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images

We Have the Coronavirus Tools

America is like a player trapped in a deadly escape room who has been given a cheat sheet with instructions for how to leave. Instead of following the instructions, America eats the cheat sheet and then shuffles dumbly around the room, risking death at every turn.

The escape room here is the coronavirus pandemic. Though there's no cure or vaccine yet, and still plenty of mysteries about Covid-19, we do know a few basic facts that can help us survive it. Experts agree widespread mask use, for example, can lower the risk of entering public spaces again without spreading the disease, writes Max Nisen. And yet too many political leaders in America's new virus hot spots are reluctant to push the issue, possibly taking cues from President Donald Trump, who ridicules mask-wearers.

Better leadership on the whole mask thing might help people wear them properly. As Faye Flam writes, too many people are doing it wrong. For example, you don't need to wear a mask in an enclosed car or when you're alone outside. You do need to put the mask completely over your mouth and nose when you're in proximity to other people.

Another pandemic-fighting tool many other countries are using effectively, but America is still banging pointlessly on the ground like those monkey-people in "2001: A Space Odyssey," is testing and tracing. Michael Lewis looks at the work being done by the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub in San Francisco and discovers highly sophisticated contact tracing is not only cheap but can show us how the virus spreads with shocking precision. Correctly applied, this would help us shut down avenues of infection while reopening safer parts of the economy.

But nope. Instead of embracing such common-sense approaches, America has swung from the most extreme reaction — widespread lockdowns — to the most extreme counterreaction — doing nothing and hoping for the best — writes Niall Ferguson. The first caused devastating economic damage, and the latter takes that sacrifice and stupidly eats it along with the cheat sheet.

Crazy Times, Crazy Markets

This newsletter enjoys mocking the new wave of day traders pumping up the stock market as much as the next newsletter. Then again, the idea of using random Scrabble tiles to pick stocks may seem insane at first, but studies keep finding that dart-throwing monkeys are better stock-pickers than most humans. Maybe monkey-selected stocks really never will fall again, as long as there's a Powell Put in place. In fact, writes Mark Gilbert, there's evidence Dave Portnoy acolytes aren't really the ones driving the market to unthinkable highs in the middle of a pandemic/depression. It's central bankers, pumping liquidity into markets all over the world.

This may not fit your worldview, especially if you assume markets are always rational and efficient. Better, Barry Ritholtz suggests, to assume they're more like Star Trek's Mr. Spock: half irrational human and half logical Vulcan. Mohamed El-Erian suggests stocks can't keep this momentum up for much longer without better news on the pandemic or economic fronts. But central banks could provide whatever lift is needed, making markets even less rational and those dart-throwing monkeys look even better.

Further Markets Reading:

Don't Kill New START

Andreas Kluth wrote last week about how the world, which didn't quite have enough problems, is locked in a nuclear arms race worse than the one in the Cold War. That makes it all the more imperative that New START, the very last U.S. nuclear-arms deal with Russia, keeps clinging to life. But as Bloomberg's editorial board writes, Trump is threatening to kill this treaty in hopes of getting a better deal. He probably can't, at least not in the time before New START's renewal deadline expires. Letting it die would make an already bad arms race even worse.

Bonus Editorial: Here's what the next stimulus plan should look like.

Telltale Charts

A national movement against racism in the wake of George Floyd's killing has posed a particular challenge to America's heroic brands. Ben Schott tracks how they have responded, or not responded, in the very important brand-building medium of Instagram. It's been a wild ride.

Yes, oil prices are no longer negative, and demand is slowly recovering. But yeesh, there sure is a whole bunch of oil still sloshing around out there, writes Julian Lee.

Before coronavirus, the English Premier League hoped streaming services would keep pumping up its TV-rights money, writes Alex Webb. So much for that.

Further Reading

Today's mountainous levels of central bank reserves can't last forever. — Andrew Bailey

But we shouldn't worry about them creating inflation. — Bill Dudley

The Geoffrey Berman firing shows just how amoral Trump and Bill Barr are. — Timothy L. O'Brien

Hong Kong has never felt like a part of China, and Beijing's heavy-handed crackdown will only alienate it more. — Michael Schuman

Pandemic-forced remote work may be just the shock Japan's rusty corporate culture needs. — Noah Smith

Are we sure Wirecard AG deserves to survive? — Chris Bryant

Developers have legitimate complaints about Apple Inc.'s App Store. It should address them or risk far harsher regulation. — Tae Kim

ICYMI

How TikTok teens messed with Trump's Tulsa expectations.

How the pandemic is changing cities.

There may be a downside to planting millions of trees.

Kickers

Archaeologists find the oldest evidence of bow-and-arrow hunting outside of Africa.

Scientists plant an artificial odor in mouse brains. (h/t Scott Kominers for the first two kickers)

"Jurassic Park" and "Jaws" are back atop the box office.

The military is investing in nuclear-thermal propulsion.

Note: Please send artificial odors and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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