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AstraZeneca approaches Gilead on record merger, OPEC+ extends production cuts, and widespread protests continue over the weekend.

Mega merger? 

AstraZeneca Plc and Gilead Sciences Inc., the two most prominent drugmakers in the coronavirus outbreak, are looking into the possibility of pursuing a merger, according to people familiar with the matter. While a deal may make sense in theory -- combining AstraZeneca's strong drug pipeline with Gilead's better financial position -- formal talks have yet to begin for what would be the largest ever for the health-care industry. 

Oil deal!

OPEC+ agreed to a one-month extension to the production cuts introduced to counter the pandemic-led oil price crash. There was also agreement on a stricter approach to monitoring member production to control the "Pinocchio" problem -- where some states were pumping far more oil than allowed. Crude investors welcomed the deal, pushing Brent above $43 a barrel this morning, while West Texas Intermediate traded around $40. Saudi Arabia was quick to increase prices to its customers in some of the biggest hikes in two decades

Protests

There were widespread protests over the weekend in the U.S. and around the world, with little of the same violence that had marred earlier demonstrations. President Donald Trump tweeted that he was ordering the withdrawal of the National Guard from Washington while stepping up attacks on Joe Biden ahead of a move by Democrat lawmakers to address police reform. Biden got a boost over the weekend when former Republican secretary of State Colin Powell said he would vote for him in November. 

Markets mixed

Global equity investors remain bullish, with a seemingly endless list of things touted for upside potential.  Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.8% while Japan's Topix index closed 1.1% higher. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was not sticking to the script, dropping 0.4% by 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time. S&P 500 futures pointed to a gain at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.91% and gold recovered some ground. 

Coming up...

There is no real economic data of note this morning, giving investors a chance to concentrate on their guesses for Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision. New York City starts to reopen in the wake of the hit it took from the coronavirus outbreak. President Trump plans to host a roundtable with law enforcement officials in the White House, Joe Biden is travelling to Houston to meet the family of George Floyd. It is also a quiet day on the earnings front with Coupa Software Inc. one of the few companies reporting. 

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the weekend.

And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morning

Back in the ancient days of early March, you probably saw versions of this chart dozens of times, as people implored each other to stay inside, slow the spread of the coronavirus, and ease the pressure on the health care infrastructure.

As we come out of the health crisis *knock on wood* a visual cousin of the above chart helps explain why the economy is so confusing right now. Remember, on Friday, economists had their biggest blunder ever as the Non-Farm Payrolls report showed an unexpected job gains versus forecasts of further losses. One issue that makes assessing the labor market extremely tough, as Shawn Donnan wrote about this weekend, is that while some unemployment is temporary on account of the virus and the lockdowns, other people are losing their jobs due to the slowdown and economic damage caused by the virus and the lockdowns. When the jobs report was released Friday, the BLS said that the number of unemployed persons on temporary layoff decreased by 2.7 million to 15.3 million total while the number of those permanently unemployed rose by 295,000 to 2.3 million.

And so there are, in a sense, two distinct unemployment curves and they look like this:

Joe Weisenthal is an editor at Bloomberg. 

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