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China agrees to buy more stuff, stimulus talks in Europe, and it's quadruple witching. 

Accelerating purchases

While relations with China may have become something of a political hot potato recently, talks over trade between the world's two largest economies this week in Hawaii seem to have borne some fruit. The Chinese government has asked state-owned agricultural buyers to make all efforts to meet the terms of the phase-one trade agreement, according to a person familiar with the matter. Due to the virus shutdown, purchases of U.S. farm products by the Asian nation had only reached 13% of the 2020 target under the deal in the first four months of the year, so by agreeing to honor the commitment Beijing is compelled to accelerate imports.

Stimulus 

European Union leaders are meeting today to begin negotiations on a 750 billion-euro ($840 billion) plan to help their economies rebound from the coronavirus outbreak. A final agreement on the package is not expected until the next leaders summit in July. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that recent calm in markets is due to investors pricing in government stimulus, and that failure to reach an agreement could lead to a change in sentiment. Speaking of investor sentiment, worries continue to rise over the jump in cases with Texas, California, Arizona and Florida all reporting significant increases in infections. 

Quadruple witching

A busy trading month may see one of its most uncertain sessions today as options on futures and indexes are set to expire in a quarterly event known as "quadruple witching." While it normally leads to large volumes at the open and the close, large price swings can happen at any time of the day. About $1.8 trillion of S&P 500 options are scheduled to expire, making it the third-largest non-December expiration on record, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Markets rise

The good news on trade between China and the U.S. and the start of stimulus talks in Europe are helping lift equity markets. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3% while Japan's Topix index ended the session broadly unchanged. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was 1% higher at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time with all but one industry sector in the green. S&P 500 futures pointed to a strong open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.72% and oil was above $40 a barrel

Coming up...

Possibly the biggest event today will be the Washington federal court hearing on the government's request to block the publication of John Bolton's book. The U.S. first-quarter current account balance and Canadian April retail sales are at 8:30 a.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Fed Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles all speak at various events. The Baker Hughes rigcount is at 1:00 p.m. 

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

And finally, here's what Emily's interested in this morning

The Federal Reserve chair has a way with words. At least, he was colorful in his imagery when asked this week about the risks of its unprecedented step to buy corporate bonds. 

"I don't see us wanting to run through the bond market like an elephant snuffing out price signals," Chair Jerome Powell said in a semiannual hearing at Congress. Instead of simply saying it will buy corporate bonds, and letting the market jump to its own conclusions -- as it has, with searing rallies and record issuance in both March and April -- the Fed delivered. The modest purchases have invited plenty of criticism, ranging from charges by some lawmakers of stoking moral hazard, to billionaire money manager Jeffrey Gundlach's accusations that the facilities violate the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 and have crushed volatility in the high-yield and investment-grade markets.

Anyone steeped in Japan's experience would be familiar with Gundlach's line of criticism. The Bank of Japan gobbled up so much of the government bond market over decades of stimulus that the industry warned about permanent damage to the infrastructure. Market participants in recent years told the central bank that the deadened liquidity caused by the BOJ left dealers sometimes unable to execute a larger-sized transaction. And they cautioned that the ranks of experienced traders were thinning out. It's hard to have price discovery if there's nobody left to discover it.

The Fed this week took steps to address a very different source of angst, that the scope of its purchases might be limited, or skewed, by its focus on exchange-traded funds. The central bank announced Monday that its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility is shifting away from buying bond ETFs, to follow a diversified market index it built specifically to comprise all eligible securities.

The move removes a possible hurdle for companies in registering for access, and gives the Fed more control over its interventions, rather than being "a passive lender of last resort," says Julia Coronado, president and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives.

As of now, the facilities have proven their effectiveness as a source of market support. As for further market gains, BMO Capital Markets strategist Dan Krieter reckons the bulk of the performance boost has probably been mostly wrung out by now "because these facilities are now truly emergency facilities."

Follow Bloomberg's Emily Barrett on Twitter at @notthatECB

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