| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a Children's Treasury of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. Today's Agenda  We're all subject to forces beyond our control. Photographer: Cindy Ord/Getty Images North America Don't Read This Before Bed These days one of the worst things you can do is check the news right before bed, because you're going to see some stuff that makes you not want to close your eyes again for several days. So let's just state this up front: Don't read today's newsletter right before bed. Because we're about to take a long ride through the dark side, as a necessary counterpoint to the misplaced optimism gripping financial markets and many policy makers lately. The on-again/off-again cheerleader for this is President Donald Trump, who is as eager to get everybody back to work as we are to comply. The trouble is, in order for this to happen safely, the country still needs far more coronavirus testing, protective equipment and contact-tracing capability than it currently has, Bloomberg's editorial board writes. Typically you'd expect the federal government to take the lead on this, but Trump has punted responsibility to the underfunded states, so we're going nowhere fast. Some of those states are already starting to end lockdowns long before even Trump's guidelines suggest is wise. New outbreaks are almost a certainty, warns Max Nisen (not that the first one even really ended; its pace of growth has just slowed down). How bad they get depends on both suppression measures and several uncontrollable factors, such as the weather and the ability of science to find treatments. Many of us may expect a peak in cases to be followed by a decline that was just as rapid as the rise. Instead, what we see in both scientific models and real-world data from other countries is a rush to a high plateau and then a slow grind downward, writes Mark Buchanan. This suggests it could be months before the pandemic is truly under control — by which time we may be due for the fall season to bring a second wave. This pattern could repeat for years. A vaccine could finally end it, but there's no guarantee we'll get one, despite Operation Warp Speed, the Trump administration's vaccine moonshot program. In fact, we must prepare for the possibility this disease will never truly be defeated, warns Narayana Kocherlakota. For economic policy makers, that means their heroic short-term support for the economy won't be nearly enough. Trump has apparently not realized the potential downsides, or else he'd be pushing Congress for far more help, writes Jonathan Bernstein. Giddy stock investors may soon realize they're just in the middle of the sort of dead-cat bounce we saw in the Depression, writes Gary Shilling. Maybe this is all too pessimistic; Bill Gates says we could have a vaccine in just nine months. But it's better to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Now here's a picture of some animals, in case you foolishly read this right before bed:  Further Reopening Reading: About Those Small-Company Bailouts On the campaign trail in 2016, Trump was always reading a song called "The Snake," which says you can't blame a snake for biting you; it's in its nature. Trump used it to stoke fear of immigrants, but you could also apply it to companies. For instance, we're all justifiably angry at big companies for taking relief money meant for small ones. But the Paycheck Protection Program was built to funnel money to some big businesses, writes Neil Barofsky. It's in a company's nature to try to get money the law says belongs to it. The fury inspired by the first round of bailout money going to undeserving recipients did shame some into returning it. But plenty of companies are still hanging onto this cash instead of doing the right thing, writes Joe Nocera. Worse, nobody bothered to change the incentives when the second pot of cash was distributed. If we don't fix them soon, and also make sure they're properly aligned in the Fed's huge Main Street lending program, then the political backlash will be fiercer than what followed the financial crisis, Neil warns. Further Bailout Reading: Sorry, landlords, but you should eat some of the costs of people not paying rent for a while. — Noah Smith Where's the Beef? As if we didn't have enough to worry about, the nation's strategic meat reserve may be threatened by coronavirus outbreaks at processing plants. The fact that problems at just a few facilities can affect your personal bacon supply is mainly the result of massive industry consolidation, writes David Fickling. And pandemic-proofing the industry will only further concentrate it, as the big producers can handle the necessary costs the best. In any event, forcing workers into infected plants could well backfire, warns Amanda Little, leading to more widespread shutdowns and longer food shortages. For better or worse, Trump's apparent "order" keeping these plants open is as vague as everything else he's done in this crisis, writes Noah Feldman. Telltale Charts The shutdown of air travel will hurry many old gas-guzzling airplanes off to that old-airplane farm upstate, greatly reducing the world's demand for jet fuel, write Liam Denning and Brooke Sutherland. Unfortunately for the oil industry, jet fuel was its one big hope for growth in oil demand.  Movie theaters are steamed Universal released "Trolls World Tour" straight to video, but the industries will need each other after lockdowns end, writes Tara Lachapelle.  Further Reading Tesla bulls ignore such niceties as "coronavirus" and "numbers." — Liam Denning Kudos to Royal Dutch Shell for cutting its dividend, an all-too-rare example of bowing to reality. — Chris Hughes Some real-time indicators suggest the job market is in even worse shape than the ugly official numbers say. — Michael R. Strain Europe will collapse without a leader, but Germany, the best candidate, doesn't want the job. — Andreas Kluth This may be the death knell for Davos Man. — Mark Gilbert Americans are swamping thrift stores with too much stuff. — Adam Minter ICYMI Children may be as infectious as adults, even with mild symptoms. West Point grads will be in a "safety bubble" before Trump's speech. How Exxon Mobil was humbled. Kickers What recipe is your state searching for the most in quarantine? (h/t Scott Kominers) Why carbon emissions aren't falling more during lockdowns. The science behind hiccups. You need to order your Mother's Day gifts now. Here are some ideas. Note: Please send recipes and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. | 
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