This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an Epcot Center of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. Today's Agenda A+ mask-wearing, but their social distancing could use some work. Photographer: George Rinhart/Corbis Historical/Getty Images Shades of 1918If you haven't seen it already, a decent thing to watch in pandemic lockdown is the movie "1917." It's not relaxing by any stretch; it's a solid hour and 59 minutes of hair-on-fire panic. But it is strangely reassuring, in that what you're going through is probably not as bad as being shot at by Germans for two hours. That era is front of mind these days because 1918 was the last time we faced a pandemic of this scope. A lot of things are better today: There's no world war, the music is just objectively better, and the pandemic is (so far, knocking furiously on wood) less deadly than the Spanish flu. But it is still deadly, still widespread and much more economically devastating than the earlier disease. Today's economy depends far more on global supply chains and personal services, and lacks the stimulative offset of a world war (again, so far, knocking furiously on wood), writes Noah Smith. That latter part is a good thing, of course, and makes this era less deadly. But the nature of today's economy means it will take longer to recover when this pandemic ends. (That's assuming it does; nobody seems to be planning for the very real possibility we will simply never defeat it, Noah Feldman warns.) Very soon, in fact, we're going to start feeling the bite again, as stimulus measures expire, warns Conor Sen. President Donald Trump is trying to reopen the economy to avoid such a swoon, at the risk of killing many more people. But ongoing lockdowns and general anxiety about the coronavirus — especially if premature reopening causes another surge of deaths — will probably keep activity at recessionary levels. Temporary layoffs are already becoming permanent. It's not World War I, but it's an emergency.
Stock Markets Get Right to RoaringThe 1918 pandemic and world war were followed by the Roaring Twenties, when drinking was illegal, but music improved a bunch and the economy was great, at least temporarily. Today's stock market is skipping right to the roaring part, encouraged by belief the Fed will never let stocks fall again, along with vague hopes some combination of science and magic will make it 2019 again. This is premature, to say the least, writes Jim Bianco. All this optimism must bear fruit quickly, or we'll see stocks crash again. The Fed can't hold up prices forever if they're artificially high. If markets just listened to what companies are trying to tell them on earnings calls, prices would be lower, writes John Authers. But traders hear what they want to hear. One possible early warning indicator to watch is the trash-hauling sector. Its revenue has suffered as big commercial accounts shut down operations, notes Brooke Sutherland. But the market has favored it, executives are making optimistic noises, and they're taking care of employees well. If any of this starts to change, then watch out below. Protect the World's Most VulnerableOne of the positive aspects of this nightmare is a newfound appreciation for immigrants, who are often the ones caring for virus patients and risking their health to deliver our groceries. At the same time, the usual demagogues are trying to blame them for the pandemic and raise even higher walls to future immigration, writes Pankaj Mishra. But if we're to rebuild economies around the world, immigrants will play a big role. Many immigrants are gig workers, which are doing some of the most dangerous jobs right now and aren't counted as unemployed even if they'd rather be doing something else, notes Linda Yueh. Instead, they're part of the ranks of the underemployed, which swelled after the 2008 recession and will again. We'll need to strengthen the social safety net even more for these people. The benefits of immigrants flow two ways, notes Ben Schott: to the economies of their new homes and back to their homelands, in the form of remittances. The virus is already clamping down on this flow, making the global economic pain worse.  Perhaps at greatest risk of all are the millions of people in refugee camps around the world, writes Tracy Walsh. They're crammed together in close quarters with poor health care and no government to defend them. The world has spent too little to protect them, raising the risk of a shameful tragedy. Telltale ChartsWalt Disney Co. theme parks, once at the heart of the company, are now a black hole for cash, writes Tara Lachapelle. It's hard to imagine when they'll be back to normal.  Occidental Petroleum Corp. gambled its balance sheet on a risky and controversial acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum. Its timing was spectacularly bad, and its balance sheet is paying the price, writes Liam Denning.  Further ReadingStopping mergers as Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez want to do will only hurt the economy. — Bloomberg's editorial board Trump's approval ratings seem shockingly durable, but they're in the danger zone associated with election losses. — Jonathan Bernstein Shout-out to the rare evangelical leaders who don't kowtow to Trump. It's not easy for them. — Francis Wilkinson Germany's constitutional court did Europe a favor by forcing it to confront its need for real solutions to its disunion. — Andreas Kluth The coronavirus is raising the risk of a cold war with China, but will leave America with less of a budget to wage it. — Hal Brands Government employees should be able to sue when they're not protected adequately. — Stephen Carter Work life will look very different when we start to go back to offices. — Therese Raphael ICYMIMost states fall short of White House reopening criteria. Signs you may be burning out. Meat workers are quitting as plants reopen. Eleven Madison Park may never reopen. (We had the wrong link for this yesterday.) KickersSome players are turning Animal Crossing into real-life businesses. Tupac Shakur really did file for unemployment in Kentucky. (h/t Scott Kominers for the first two kickers) Researchers find a herpes link to Alzheimer's. Cory Doctorow's rules for writers. Note: Please send pork and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. | 
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