If Trump has a recovery plan, it's a mystery

Follow Us Get the newsletter Get Jonathan Bernstein's newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Remember "Shakespeare in Love"? Geoffrey Rush's character has a nice running joke about show business: Philip Henslowe: Mr. Fennyman, allow me to explain about the theatre business. The natural condition is one of insurmountable obstacles on the road to imminent disaster. Hugh Fennyman: So what do we do? Philip Henslowe: Nothing. Strangely enough, it all turns out well. Hugh Fennyman: How? Philip Henslowe: I don't know. It's a mystery. That also seems to be President Donald Trump's economic recovery plan. I suspect this is one of those times where a politician is so out of sync with public expectations that people are reluctant to believe it. But the evidence keeps mounting. In fact, Trump basically said as much during his Fox News appearance Sunday night. Taking what should've been a softball question about whether he would do anything about infrastructure, Trump started by talking about a payroll tax cut, then briefly mentioned infrastructure, then said that Democrats wanted help for state and local governments but he didn't, then returned to infrastructure, then finished by saying that he'd demand a payroll tax cut in the next recovery bill. The problem is that Trump has already pushed a payroll tax cut only to have it rejected by both chambers of Congress. And while he almost certainly could get an infrastructure bill passed — as he pointed out, House Democrats are very interested — he's been talking about the idea for years without actually putting together a real plan and there's no indication that he has one now. Or, as he said at another point, "It is all working out. It is horrible to go through, but it is working out." How? It's apparently a mystery. Ezra Klein has a nice piece about how unusual this entire situation is: Trump should be the one desperate to pass bills to boost the economy in time for the November election, while Democrats should be reluctantly going along out of a sense of responsibility. Instead, with a few exceptions, Democrats have been taking the lead throughout the coronavirus crisis.  Last week, at least Trump had a theory about the recovery: He expected pent-up demand to make everything okay. He has since dropped even that talking point. Lately, he has taken to simply repeating how great the economy was until the pandemic hit, something he takes credit for even though it's hard to see much difference between the Trump years and Barack Obama's second term. (To be sure: The longer steady-if-unremarkable growth continued, the better, and to the extent presidents influence short-term growth at all, Trump deserved credit for keeping an already long expansion going for another three years.) Ronald Reagan, the last president with a show-business background, was not one to passively assume things would all work out. But then again, Reagan understood that the presidency was a job he had been hired to do, and one that demanded more than just acting skills.  1. Philip Klinkner on the political geography of the pandemic. 2. Julia Azari and Seth Masket on the veepstakes. 3. Gina Gustavsson at the Monkey Cage on the response in Sweden. 4. Marc Hetherington and Jonathan M. Ladd on how the U.S. became vulnerable to the coronavirus. 5. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Tobin Harshaw talks with Michele Flournoy about preparing for the next pandemic. 6. And Ed Kilgore on former Vice President Joe Biden's hold on the Democratic nomination. What I'd add: In the unlikely event that Biden ever did want to drop out at this late moment, the responsible way to do so would be to first name his running mate, and then later withdraw in her favor. He couldn't force his delegates to support the designated vice-presidential nominee, but assuming whoever it was had a good rollout, the odds are that she would become a consensus replacement. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close.   Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.   You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Early Returns newsletter. Unsubscribe | Bloomberg.com | Contact Us Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022