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Here are 3 trillion reasons to worry a little less

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Today's Agenda

Telltale Charts: No Limits Edition

All the government rescue packages getting thrown around to stave off a depression have big numbers attached, often in the trillions. Here's another big, possibly helpful number: $3 trillion.

That's how much room Americans have left under revolving credit limits, writes Brian Chappatta:

We don't want everybody maxing out their credit cards and using all that $3 trillion, of course. That would be pretty catastrophic in its own way. But this suggests many people have at least some (lumpy, high-interest) cushion to carry them for a while.

That's especially relevant for the 30 million people who have lost jobs in the past six weeks. And we should be thankful that particular number isn't even higher. As Karl Smith points out, pay cuts have been more prevalent in this recession than in past ones, possibly because all those high-dollar rescue programs were specifically designed to keep people employed. This could help the economy recover quickly whenever all this is over; if people still have jobs when the economy gets moving again, they'll be likelier to spend.

Companies in Trouble

Of course, if you had shaky credit going into this pandemic, then you're going to be in worse shape now. It will probably not comfort you to learn you have soulmates in Corporate America. Take rental-car companies. They mostly serve people on vacations and business trips, and nobody will take those again until we get a sworn affidavit from God or Anthony Fauci that Covid-19 is cured. The bailout window is also closed for these companies, partly because they're owned by wealthy people, hedge funds and other such unsavory types, notes Chris Bryant. So Hertz Global holdings, partly owned by Carl Icahn and in financial trouble even before the crisis, now has just a couple of weeks to raise cash to satisfy creditors. It won't be the last of its kind in trouble.

Apparel retailers were also on iffy footing before the crisis, and now many are endangered. One glaring example is Victoria's Secret, whose brand long ago grew passé, making it a headache for parent L Brands Inc., notes Andrea Felsted. The company just gave up trying to get Sycamore Partners to buy a big stake, meaning it's still on its own in figuring out how to stop this from happening:

WeWork was already the clown prince of shaky corporate finances going into the pandemic. Now that coworking spaces are less popular than business trips, even WeWork's longtime enabler SoftBank is balking at giving it more cash. So We founder Adam Neumann is suing, as one does. Tim Culpan argues he not only has the right to sue, but that SoftBank should just settle to make him go away and save face by closing this sorry chapter. Matt Levine argues the time for face-saving was several billion wasted dollars ago.

Scary Coronavirus Numbers

If we could all just get safely back to work, then many of these financial worries would vanish. But the key word here is "safely." Unless and until we have that signed affidavit or a proven vaccine or treatment, then we'll have to trust the hair salons and restaurants we enter to care about our health as much as we do, writes Tyler Cowen. We'll also have to trust our fellow customers to the same degree. Fat chance, right?

Fortunately, scientists and drugmakers are frantically working on those vaccines and treatments, including a promising line of antibody treatments. One way to get a vaccine more quickly than the usual years-long process is in risky human trials. Faye Flam explains why she's just the right kind of person to volunteer for one, as she's already done.

President Donald Trump is pushing everybody to get back to work, preferring the advice of economic adviser Kevin Hassett — who sees no virus deaths by May 15 because his Excel spreadsheet says so — over far more worrisome numbers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Those CDC projections are so scary, in fact, they seem a little suspect, writes Jonathan Bernstein. Perhaps they were an effort to scare the president into taking the pandemic more seriously. Of course, now he's talking about disbanding the coronavirus task force, so maybe it didn't take.

Further Reopening Reading:

European Vexation

No matter the crisis, the European Union's biggest problem is that it needs much more "Union." In this pandemic, for example, some countries (Italy, Spain) need more financial assistance than others (Germany), a problem that would be solved if they were all in a fiscal union, sharing revenue and expenses. Sort of like the U.S., but with fewer threatening tweets from the president. There's no way Europe could build this on the fly, but it can and should build a big, temporary architecture to let stronger members carry weaker ones through the crisis, writes Bloomberg's editorial board.

Even a temporary union will face political resistance in Germany, though. That country's constitutional court is even throwing doubt on the European Central Bank's rescue efforts and threatening to pull the Bundesbank out if the ECB doesn't meet certain demands. Compliance would be easy, but submitting to Germany's will would set a terrible precedent, warns Ferdinando Giugliano.

Further Reading

This year's never-ending spring break exposes how college isn't worth the expense for many kids. — Nir Kaissar

Like it or not, much of the world will be forced to resort to Abenomics. — Vince Cable

The pandemic could hasten robots taking over dangerous and dirty jobs. Displaced workers will need help. — Cathy O'Neil

Business shutdowns are a huge problem for the recycling industry, a key part of the supply chain. — Adam Minter

ICYMI

Trump blamed a Chinese lab for spreading coronavirus.

One of the world's best restaurants may never reopen.

Elon Musk and Grimes now have a baby boy, which may or may not be named X Æ A-12 Musk.

Kominers Conundrum Update

Last weekend's Conundrum was a bit exotic — a puzzle hidden in the text of the column. The first clues are really in the details, so look closely to see if you can notice any of them. Once you find them, can you put them together into an even bigger clue? — Scott Kominers

Kickers

Industrious five-year-old borrows car to drive to California to buy a Lamborghini. (h/t Ellen Kominers)

"Plague, Inc." developer didn't expect life to imitate his game.

In a tunnel under Alaska, scientists study melting permafrost.

All 105 Disney Channel original movies, ranked.

Note: Please send Lamborghinis and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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