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Brexit Bulletin: To the brink

Brexit Bulletin
Bloomberg

 

What's Happening? A chaotic split is becoming more likely as the third round of post-Brexit talks come to an end.

The U.K. has doubled down, sticking to Prime Minister Boris Johnson's red lines and refusing to compromise with just seven months left to strike a full post-Brexit deal. "Cabinet agreed that we won't agree to demands for us to give up our rights as an independent state," Johnson's spokesman, James Slack, told reporters on Wednesday. You can read the full story here.

It seems little headway has been made after four days of talks. In fact, there's been virtually no movement since day one on the main disagreements—most notably on the conditions the European Union wants Britain to accept in return for a trade deal, but also on fisheries and on the role of EU courts.

Just one more round of negotiations remains before politicians meet in June to decide if it's worth carrying on. Johnson has threatened to walk away by then if insufficient progress has been made. That would mean Britain could end its post-Brexit transition period on Dec. 31 without a free trade deal, leading to the reintroduction of customs checks and quotas.

The pandemic may have made that more likely. Covid-19 has made the choreography of these talks harder, with negotiators bemoaning the fact they can't settle disagreements over a private coffee. It has changed the political calculus, too: the economic costs of leaving without a deal would be dwarfed by those of the virus.

The risk of a chaotic departure is growing. For Johnson, already facing criticism for his handling of the pandemic, the political danger is that outcome makes any recovery from the virus even more sluggish.

Edward Evans

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