| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a vaccine Manhattan Project of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. Today's Agenda  President Donald Trump, possibly pointing a finger at the WHO. Photographer: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images North America Lead the World Again Here's an unhappy scenario for you: After months of work around the world on more than 100 vaccine candidates for the new coronavirus, China wins the race to make the first proven one. But in response to belligerence from President Donald Trump, China pushes the U.S. to the back of the line for it. It probably won't turn out like this. For one thing, China has suggested it will make a vaccine available to all, and surely it would never go back on its word, he typed after just waking up from a long coma. Anyway, the U.S. could avoid such an outcome by leading a coordinated global effort against what is, after all, a global pandemic, writes Bloomberg's editorial board. This would involve everybody sharing funding and data and promising that health workers would get first dibs on a viable vaccine no matter where they were in the world. It seems like only three and a half years ago the U.S. was the go-to leader for such an effort. Now Trump is threatening to permanently cut off World Health Organization funding in the middle of a pandemic while ratcheting up efforts to blame China for the disease. American leadership is a fading memory. Maybe an American company will make the first vaccine; Moderna Inc. of Cambridge, Massachusetts, yesterday sent a jolt through the stock market by claiming successful early results in a very small trial. But getting from such a point to a proven effective and safe vaccine will take a long time, warns Max Nisen. You can't rush a product you're potentially going to be jabbing into the arms of millions of healthy people. We can't be sure Moderna's drug will make it to the end of that journey. Still, we're on a run of good news in the fight against Covid-19; today we learned patients testing positive after recovery aren't contagious, according to a new study. This bolsters the hope people can get immunity and maybe even keep it for a long time, making a vaccine even more important. It would be a shame to throw such progress away over tired geopolitical squabbles. Further Vaccine Reading: Moderna sure picked just the right time to go raise a bunch more money from investors. — Matt Levine Stimulate the Economy Again Speaking of immensely destructive squabbles, Congress seems unlikely to pass a new stimulus bill any time soon. That's a problem because, despite the stock market soaring to the moon most days, the economy is still in deep trouble. The $3 trillion stimulus bill the House recently sent to the Dead Letter Office of the Senate deserves to become law, writes Noah Smith. One of its best features is desperately needed cash for state and local governments. It also proposes to pay for coronavirus testing and tracing, which could help reopen the economy safely. Its relief to households could be better; unfortunately the Republican Senate may not be interested in making improvements, much less passing the thing. One big risk, as we wrote yesterday, is a deflationary spiral of the sort seen in 1990s Japan and the Great Depression. We're not alone in this anxiety. In fact, almost nobody fears the opposite — an inflationary spiral — which makes Clive Crook worry that's the real risk. Still, the longer the pandemic drags on, the more it will expose what Tyler Cowen calls "ghost" businesses — those with limited cash who are not long for this world. (These are not to be confused with "zombie" companies, kept alive long past their solvency date by the Fed, in another echo of the Japan experience.) The immediate concern is making sure those ghosts don't vanish and take whole swaths of the economy with them. That's why it's so disappointing the Treasury is being hyper-careful about which companies it taps for Fed-backed loans, writes Michael Strain. It's not treating this like the once-in-a-century crisis it is. Further Stimulus Reading: Energy stimulus should focus on small, renewable projects that can create jobs without political backlash. — Liam Denning Focus on the Earnings Again Stocks lost some of their Moderna gains today, after a report threw cold water on them. But they're still super-expensive relative to earnings forecasts, notes Nir Kaissar:  It's not that companies haven't been trying to tell us things are looking bad out there; earnings forecasts have collapsed nearly to the 10-year average of past earnings, Nir notes. In fact, Brooke Sutherland and Elaine He write, companies are taking an extra-long time talking about their earnings, probably just to kill time in quarantine:  Unfortunately, Wall Street doesn't seem to be listening. Further Markets Reading: Telltale Charts Walmart Inc. just delivered a blockbuster quarter, as its investments in digital shopping paid off, writes Andrea Felsted. It won't be able to repeat this performance, but some of these gains will stick.  Britain is shockingly unified about lockdowns, to the extent it could be difficult to reopen the economy without stronger testing and tracing established, writes Therese Raphael.  Further Reading Mike Pompeo and Trump's firing of the State Department inspector general caps off a takeover that will crush morale there for a generation. — James Gibney Russia's handling of the coronavirus has been especially terrible, thanks partly to a poorly funded health-care system. — Clara Ferreira Marques Making social-distancing and mask-wearing more fun would make them more popular. — Cass Sunstein A psychological side benefit of this crisis is it could make children more resilient, as it did during the Depression. — Stephen Mihm ICYMI These hedge funds saw it coming. Sweden's economy is in a deep hole despite its soft pandemic response. Apple Inc. is buying more content for TV+, taking on Netflix more directly. Kominers's Conundrums Clue If you're stuck on this week's cryptic cipher, remember those numbers have to turn into letters somehow. And while they may look random at first glance, there is definitely some structure; for example, the tenths' place digit never gets above 5. — Scott Duke Kominers Kickers When their outdoor sculptures were stolen, they simply kicked their sculpture game up several notches. (h/t Ellen Kominers) Bees move into a hive made out of Legos. Hit power ballad may have been written by the CIA. An oral history of Michael Jordan's "flu game." Note: Please send sculptures and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. | 
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