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Optimism rises, European aid package gains support, and lawmakers set to hear from Powell and Mnuchin.

Bullish

This morning's German ZEW survey of investor expectations for the next six months posted a surprise climb to 51, the highest level in five years. The data reflects rising hopes for a recovery on the back of successful early trials of an experimental vaccine coupled with the gradual reopening of the global economy. The World Economic Forum, however, warned that the road to recovery could be a long one unless more is done to secure a quick rebound. 

Grants

The agreement reached between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron over a 500 billion-euro ($546 billion) aid package for the European Union has been widely welcomed by everyone from Italian bondholders and the Spanish Prime Minister to ECB President Christine Lagarde. However, the agreement of all European Union member states is needed for the measure to progress, with some including Austria already expressing resistance. 

Monetary and fiscal

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will testify before the Senate banking committee from 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time this morning. Powell's prepared remarks released ahead of the virtual hearing reiterate that the bank is ready to use its full range of tools and hold interest rates close to zero until the economy is back on track. It will be interesting to see if Mnuchin pushes back against any of Powell's testimony after he sought to reassure investors after the Fed chair warned of unprecedented risks to the economy last week. 

Markets mixed

Some investors are taking money off the table after yesterday's rally in U.S. and European stocks. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index and Japan's Topix index both posted gains as they caught up with U.S. moves. In Europe this morning though, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.7% lower by 5:50 a.m. in the wake of yesterday's 4% surge. S&P 500 futures pointed to a lower open and the 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.708%. Today is contract expiry day for West Texas Intermediate and there is no sign of a repeat of last month's crazy session, with a barrel for June delivery holding close to $32

Coming up...

U.S. housing starts and building permits numbers for April are expected to show significant declines when they are published at 8:30 a.m. As well as Powell, we will also hear from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren. It is a big day for retail earnings with Walmart Inc., Home Depot Inc., Kohl's Corp. and Urban Outfitters Inc. all reporting. 

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the weekend.

And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morning

A thought I keep having throughout this economic crisis is that it's extremely weird. For example, let's start with the obvious that it's weird that the NASDAQ is solidly up on the year, amid one of the worst economic shocks ever. But it's not just tech stocks doing well. It's odd, for example, that we're experiencing a boom in big ticket items like recreational vehicles (just look at shares of Camping World) at a time when so many people are losing their jobs, or their incomes are so uncertain. It's odd that we're seeing surging prices for illiquid collectibles, like vintage Jordan's or old baseball cards. You don't normally expect to see that when people are anxious about money. The electronic DJ duo The Chainsmokers are raising a venture capital fund. That's not a typical crisis headline. And then there's this whole phenomenon of legendary investors like Warren Buffett or Stan Druckenmiller sounding anxious about this market, while retail traders on Robinhood keep taking the opposite sides of the bet. The list goes on and on, but suffice to say there are many things about this crisis that don't quite add up.

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