| Millions more jobless, White House hits back at experts, and IEA sees oil market improving. Claims In normal times, weekly initial jobless claims falling to the lowest level in almost two months -- which is expected in today's data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time -- would sound like a good thing. But with economists projecting 2.5 million claims, we remain far away from normal times. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. now sees unemployment in the U.S. peaking at 25%, with a slow reversal meaning the rate will hold near 10% by the end of the year. The overhang of unemployed workers seems set to be one of the main risks to an economic rebound, with signs it is already slowing the recovery in China. Answering critics President Donald Trump publicly rebuked Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease official, describing his testimony to Congress as an attempt to "play all sides of the equation." Some Republicans are seeing Fauci as an obstacle in Trump's plans to reopen the economy. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has also been pushing back against Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's warnings over risks from the virus outbreak, saying that he sees a strong recovery next year. Signs of life There was a little good news for the oil market in this morning's International Energy Agency report which said that the outlook had "improved somewhat." Supplies are falling faster than previously expected, with OPEC and its partners slashing output while others like the U.S are forced to scale back drilling. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate for June delivery was trading above $26 this morning, while Brent for July was over $30. Markets drop Yesterday's selloff in the U.S. has set the tone this morning for global equities. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.4% while Japan's Topix index closed down 1.9%. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was 1.6% lower at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time with every industry sector trading in the red. S&P 500 futures were broadly unchanged, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.62% and gold held onto yesterday's gains. Coming up... As well as jobless claims, April U.S. import and export price data is at 8:30 a.m. The publication of the Bank of Canada's Financial System Review at 10:00 a.m. will be followed by a press conference with Governor Stephen Poloz. In the U.S. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are all due to speak later. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the weekend. And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morning One of the most amazing things about this market is the performance of tech stocks. Not only are many of them at all-time highs, but on a relative basis tech has basically just obliterated everything else, accelerating a trend that had already been well in motion prior to the crisis. Here's a chart showing a popular tech ETF vs. the S&P 500. It's totally soared in the last few months.  A meme seems to be taking hold that while it's weird that some companies doing good at a time when unemployment is expected to hit 25% that it kind of makes sense, because this represents the transition to the future. The crisis, while painful, is seen as an accelerant for the new economy. And that new economy is all about tech, the cloud and videogames, and software as a service. Of course there are some shifts underway. Amazon is getting a bigger slice of retail spending because people aren't going to stores. Netflix is getting a bigger slice of entertainment spending because people aren't going to the movies. Video games are doing well because it's a form of leisure you can do at your house. And yes, companies dealing with remote work are forced to spend on software that facilitates that. But the future of the economy can't be tech, because on some level, every company that we're talking about depends on non-tech companies to do business with. All these red-hot cloud software companies need banks, energy companies, restaurants, chemical manufacturers, dentists, hospitals, schools, real estate companies, farms to sell to, and so on. Shopify is an amazing company that lets anyone get into e-commerce, but it's dependent on people buying and selling actual stuff. Same with Etsy. Same with Amazon. You can lose a lot of money (and many people have!) by betting that the above chart will mean revert, and that eventually tech will come back to earth. But conceptually, companies can only be as strong as their customers. And if you look at some of the dismal charts in other industries (which are all tech consumers), this will become a problem for tech companies, because you can't replace your own customers. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. | 
⇉〖OpenLoad〗 2020 Superintelligence PelÃcula Completa En LÃnea released 2020. story: La vida de Carol Peters se trastorna cuando es selecci...
Post a Comment