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Good morning. U.S.-China tensions escalate, the race to find a virus vaccine is hotting up and there's debate about what the next move of the European Central Bank will be. Here's what's moving markets.

Sanctions

Escalating tensions between the U.S. and China poured some cold water on the risk-asset rally on Tuesday, though European and U.S. stock futures are still trending higher going into Wednesday's session. The U.S. is considering a range of sanctions on Chinese officials, businesses and financial institutions over the crackdown on Hong Kong, according to people familiar with the matter. President Donald Trump said that Hong Kong will lose its place as Asia's financial hub if the measures from Beijing are pushed through, while currency traders concerned about the friction are pouring money into options to hedge against the uncertainties.

The Race

Countries across Europe are continuing to reopen as infection and death rates decline, and the race is on to find a vaccine which will mean daily life can return to some sort of normlity. The battle to find a cure has opened up another new front in U.S.-China tensions, while the U.K. has cleared the use of Gilead Sciences Inc.'s remdesivir as a treatment for Covid-19 patients and Merck & Co. is going big, unveiling plans for two pills to treat the virus plus a vaccine candidate. Total virus deaths topped 350,000 globally and the U.S. is planning for a significant ramp-up in testing.

Capital Key

There is still a little more than a week to go before the European Central Bank announces its latest policy decision, but the debate about what the next stimulus move will be looks set to be testy. One policymaker floated the idea of removing a constraint on the central bank's power -- the capital key -- so this will likely become a major part of the conversation in markets leading up to the meeting. Another policymaker said that, should the outlook warrant it, the bank can expand any of its stimulus instruments. Meanwhile, the ECB says the European economy is still on shaky ground and the European Union's recovery plan faces opposition from Sweden. 

Fundraising Rush

The days are getting busier for bankers working on share sales. More than $4 billion worth of stock offerings were announced in just 30 minutes as European markets drew to a close on Tuesday, covering two stake sales and one company raising fresh capital. Earlier in the day, JDE Peet's, the coffee business being listed in Amsterdam, got enough orders to cover its IPO in just three hours of bookbuilding, signaling the market is starting to open back up. The boss of Nasdaq Inc. thinks IPOs will come if stock markets hold up ahead of the U.S. election and there are plenty more situations to watch, including Warner Music Group Corp.'s imminent listing and Reliance Industries Ltd. eyeing options for its digital unit.

Coming Up…

Asian stocks were mostly higher following a mixed start, with Japanese equities boosted by reports of a new $1 trillion stimulus package. Oil prices halted their rally on a report that Russia is determined to ease output cuts in July. Earnings season is winding down but a couple of names which have taken a hit from virus lockdowns will update, including French caterer Elior Group SA, U.K. office and retail property owner British Land Co. Plc and soft drinks maker Britvic Plc.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

  • How hedge funds plan to protect their staff.
  • Gyms are facing a huge revenue hit.
  • HBO's challenge to Netflix.
  • Covid-19 could end the American summer camp.
  • Small arts groups adapt to survive.
  • Left-wing podcasts try to chart a future.
  • The real reason gold has been rising.

And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning

The dollar is firmly on the back foot. In a bearish signal to technical traders, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has broken down through a key support line that it had bounced off on four previous occasions over the last two months. The gauge fell as much as 1% on Tuesday to its lowest level since March, as investors shunned haven assets amid further signs of economies reopening around the world. A weak dollar would provide a solid backdrop for a host of risk assets to outperform, not least those from emerging markets. But there is a fly in the ointment, and its a big one. While the support breach opens up the door for further downside in the greenback, traders will look to see first if the move holds, as renewed U.S.-China tensions threaten to weigh on investor sentiment. An escalation in the Sino-American dispute, such as sanctions over Hong Kong or even a move to reconsider its special trade status could quickly lead to a reversal in the dollar weakness and a return to an environment of risk aversion.

Cormac Mullen is a cross-asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo.

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