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China approves Hong Kong legislation, Trump goes after social media companies, and initial jobless claims expected to exceed 2 million. 

Defying Trump

Chinese lawmakers approved a proposal for sweeping new national security legislation in Hong Kong. The move, which bypasses the city's Legislative Council, comes despite a threat of retaliation from President Donald Trump. Authorities in Washington said yesterday they could no longer certify Hong Kong's political autonomy from China, a move that could have far-reaching consequences for its trading status with the U.S. Adding to the tensions which pose mounting risks to the global economy was the House vote authorizing sanctions against Chinese officials for human rights abuses against Muslim minorities. 

Tweet storm 

President Trump plans to sign an executive order that will leave major social media platforms open to lawsuits by narrowing the liability protections they enjoy. Trump has raged against Twitter Inc., with the company taking the unprecedented step of slapped fact-check links on a pair of his tweets. Nasdaq Index futures dropped overnight, but many traders see the Trump order as an empty threat

Jobless, death

This morning's initial jobless claims data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time is expected to show that 2.1 million people filed for benefits last week, with the number of continuing claims edging up to 25.7 million. The U.S. passed the grim milestone of 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus as states move ahead with their reopening plans. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government's top infectious disease expert, said there's a "good chance" a vaccine may be deployable by November or December. 

Markets rise

Investors remain tilted towards optimism on reopenings, with the stimulus plans in Europe and Japan outweighing fresh U.S.-China tensions. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.8% while Japan's Topix index closed 1.8% higher. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index had climbed 0.7% by 5:50 a.m. with banks among the few laggards. S&P 500 futures pointed to little change at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.677% and oil dropped

Coming up...

As well as claims, the second reading of first-quarter U.S. GDP is at 8:30 a.m., with the 4.8% pace of economic contraction expected to be confirmed. April durable goods orders, also at that time, are forecast to plunge almost 20%. Pending home sales for April at 10:00 a.m. will also show a significant drop. New York Fed President John Williams and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will speak later. Salesforce.com Inc, Costco Wholesale Corp. and Nordstrom Inc. are among the companies reporting. 

What we've been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours

And finally, here's what Joe's interested in this morning

There's been much talk lately about people in the media independently doing things like podcasts and newsletters, and making a lot of money from it, without the need for the halo of an established media corporation. The New York Times in particular has written a lot on people like Joe Rogan, the hosts of the podcast Call Her Daddy, or various newsletter writers selling subscriptions via Substack. It's all about stars monetizing (or attempting to monetize) their own brand and fans. One of the underlying themes here is the emerging winner-take-allness of the media. While the news media, in particular, is having a brutal period with a non-stop string of layoffs, some players are doing better than ever.

One that's doing phenomenally well is the New York Times itself. It's well known that many big tech companies (or at least their shares) are booming amid the Covid crisis. But so far this year, the NYT is doing better than names like Apple, Facebook, Google and Microsoft. Of the tech megacaps, only Amazon is doing better. If it hasn't been clear before, it should be obvious to everyone now that the NYT is a tech company and a tech stock. It benefits from network effects and accelerating economies of scale like any other tech company. It's booming in the podcast space. It's got popular apps for cooking and games. It's even rolling out its own proprietary platform for online ad targeting next year, cutting off third-party players. Far from being the "Failing New York Times", the company is in a rare club of companies and players whose business just keeps getting more dominant and powerful.

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