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Why did Bernie Sanders lose?

Early Returns
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Perhaps because the Wisconsin primary is supposed to happen this week (see below for the latest), there's been another round of stories about the fate of Senator Bernie Sanders's campaign, and another round of recriminations about how he lost. 

Steve Kornacki gets the question right: What Sanders needs to be thinking about now is how to maximize his influence, and whether gaining extra delegates by remaining in the race is worth the risk to his reputation if he gets clobbered going forward. Since Kornacki wrote that, there's been a new national poll, and it has former Vice President Joe Biden up by 32 percentage points. So the "gets clobbered a lot" scenario is certainly possible. 

I don't think there's a correct answer to that question, but it's clearly long past time for both Sanders and his campaign surrogates to direct their attacks at President Donald Trump and not at Biden — that is, if the goal is to maximize Sanders's influence within the party. 

As for why he lost? Scott Lemieux has a nice item about the Sanders supporters who still think that he ran the best campaign and conclude that only some sort of unprecedented intervention cost him the nomination. As Lemieux points out, Sanders's strategy of winning by defeating a divided Democratic field never made any sense to begin with.

What he doesn't say is that Sanders was lucky to get as close to the nomination as he did. The huge field made it hard for new candidates to get traction, which meant that some strong candidates dropped out before Iowa. Then the Iowa caucuses produced maximum chaos and New Hampshire produced more of it. In particular, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg's strong showings in those two states, despite a lack of support from party actors, delayed consolidation of the field. So did the botched count in Iowa. So did Senator Amy Klobuchar's late New Hampshire surge. Even Senator Elizabeth Warren's too-late-for-Nevada debate performance added uncertainty to the situation.

In fact, despite all that, what was unusual about the Democratic race from Iowa on wasn't that candidates dropped out early; it was that candidates stayed in a bit longer than usual. Klobuchar could've dropped after Iowa. Warren could've dropped after New Hampshire. Buttigieg could've dropped after Nevada. In all likelihood, they stuck around because they correctly suspected that Sanders had limited appeal even after his impressive Nevada showing, and because it wasn't obvious how the field would consolidate until Biden's big comeback in South Carolina.

The folks who are claiming that Sanders ran the best campaign aren't wrong just because he didn't win the most votes. But what they're missing is that what Sanders did well — generating strong enthusiasm among core supporters, as measured by things such as rally attendance, donors and volunteer hours — is not the only goal of a nomination campaign. It's equally important to convince a much larger portion of the party that the candidate should be acceptable to them. Meanwhile, Biden didn't generate the intense support that Sanders did, but it turned out that almost everyone who wasn't enthusiastic for Sanders was able to tolerate Biden. 

Which, I would add, is both a legitimately democratic result and how a party nomination process should work. 

1. Rick Hasen on the Supreme Court decision on the Wisconsin election.

2. Dominik Stecula at Mischiefs of Faction on misinformation and the pandemic.

3. Aaron Carroll on how the coronavirus shutdown ends.

4. Jared Bernstein on implementing the big relief bill.

5. David Leonhardt on what should go in the next virus bill.

6. And Greg Sargent compares Trump and Biden on the pandemic.

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