| Get Jonathan Bernstein's newsletter every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. With the economic fallout from the coronavirus likely to worsen in the months ahead, and Republicans in Congress apparently disinclined to take further bold action, now's the time when decisive presidential action could really make a difference. Unfortunately, it's increasingly clear that President Donald Trump is in over his head. Watching Trump take questions Wednesday afternoon, it was apparent that his recovery plan … well, "plan" is too strong a word. What he said will happen is that government-imposed restrictions will soon come off, the economy will start up again, the coronavirus will disappear and "pent-up demand" will kick in to make the economy stronger than ever. There are some obvious problems with this scenario, not least that the virus is unlikely to simply go away on its own any time soon. Trump did refer to the possibility of "embers" flaring up, but dismissed it a complication that we know how to deal with. This seems fairly optimistic given that the original outbreak is still killing thousands of Americans every week despite extreme and economically disastrous interventions. Even if we grant his wishful thinking, Trump's oft-repeated claims about pent-up demand seem divorced from reality. It's true that some people have continued to work as usual while sheltering at home during the lockdown, and may be eager to spend like sailors once it's possible. But millions of others have lost their jobs, watched their businesses fail, or had their hours and wages cut back. Even if they got some relief from previous aid packages, they've still taken a significant blow. They may want to rush out to dinner and a movie, but they don't have the cash to do so. Nor is it plausible that all of those millions will be back to work on day one, which means many will be falling deeper into the hole until there's another round of significant government action — something Trump is downplaying and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell seems to oppose outright. If consumer demand is in fact restricted rather than "pent-up," then instead of some grand reopening we're likely to see cascading bouts of trouble throughout the system. And the budget disasters that state and local governments are already experiencing will likely worsen. Huge government layoffs have already begun, with "millions" of more jobs at risk. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday urged Congress to do more. But this is a case where Republicans in Congress are unlikely to feel a sense of urgency — after all, most of them have safe seats and may get pressure from ideological party actors to avoid additional massive spending packages for things that Republicans don't typically like. That's exactly the scenario where forceful party leadership from the White House can make a difference. But if Trump is at least publicly living in a fantasy world in which viruses just disappear and the economy comes roaring back for no particular reason, then congressional Republicans may well decide to sit on their hands. And everyone will suffer if they do. 1. Dave Hopkins on a weak president confronting a pandemic. 2. Anke Hassel and Kathleen Thelen at the Monkey Cage on the Paycheck Protection Program compared to European approaches. 3. Heather Hurlburt on North Korea. 4. Nicole Ogrysko on the start of presidential transition planning. (This is standard procedure well before the election under relatively recent law, but I do hope Trump doesn't happen to find out about it.) 5. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Liam Denning on energy policy after the pandemic. 6. And Olivia Nuzzi on Trump's press conferences. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe. Also subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more. You'll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close. | 
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