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Trump’s not the only world leader bungling coronavirus

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Today's Agenda

Hungary's Viktor Orban will just be taking that democracy now.

Photographer: Laszlo Balogh/Getty Images Europe

The Leadership Crisis Is Global

Regular readers (thanks, all seven of you!) know we spend a lot of time bemoaning the clumsy response of America's leaders to the coronavirus pandemic. But make no mistake: This is a global issue.

Take Russia. Covid-19 cases are still rising exponentially there, and the Kremlin has struggled with messaging. While it's fighting that war, it's in an oil-price war with Saudi Arabia that has helped drive oil prices into the dirt. With its low production costs and high foreign currency reserves, Russia could afford this fight, up to a point, writes Clara Ferreira Marques. But its economy is crumbling now, and prices are getting low enough to do long-term financial damage. President Vladimir Putin's approval ratings are already taking a beating. Russia of all countries should know it's better to fight one war at a time.

A little to the west, you've got Hungary. On the plus side, Prime Minister Viktor Orban is at least embracing the adage that one should never let a good crisis go to waste. Unfortunately, he's using this crisis to crush democracy and make himself supreme leader. In the process, he's mocking the European Union's supposed dedication to the rule of law, writes Lionel Laurent. To save its credibility, the EU must cut off Orban's political and financial support.

Here in North America, Mexico's President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is running every route in the Bad Pandemic Response playbook, writes Shannon O'Neil. He's slashing health budgets, dragging his feet on social distancing and skimping on economic relief. Big plans won him the presidency, but his botched pandemic handling endangers them all.

Speaking of big plans, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office promising an economic revival, writes Dan Moss. Now the economy is tipping right back into the abyss, while Abe waffles about pandemic and recession responses. He'll blow his historic moment if he doesn't do more.

In India, Narendra Modi has locked down the economy, but ham-fistedly, and the country's health-care system is woefully unprepared. One answer, suggests Andy Mukherjee, is for India to turn itself into a health-care powerhouse — a source of drugs, equipment and professionals for the rest of the world. This would fight both the pandemic and the middle-income trap. All it will take is some leadership, which is lately in short supply.

Further Global-Leadership Reading: Oil-rich countries have a chance to launch a new era of cooperation that could be a model for a post-coronavirus world. — Meghan O'Sullivan

Markets Declare Peak Coronavirus

There are signs the outbreak may at least be peaking in some hot spots. Deaths in New York keep hitting new highs, but the growth of new cases has slowed. The epidemiologists at JPMorgan declared the U.S. case-growth peak already over. Around the world, in fact, it appears social distancing measures are having a dramatic effect in slowing infections and saving lives, notes John Authers. This is far from the end of the fight, and the worst of the deaths is still to come. But stocks, which have rocketed back into a bull market, appear to be looking to the endgame and celebrating the apparent avoidance of worst-case financial and health-care scenarios. But it's still unclear how long that endgame will last, or what victory will look like.

Further Virus-Fighting Reading: Here's why it's practically impossible to predict how coronavirus will affect everyone. — Arturo Casadevall and Liise-anne Pirofski

Banks Are Maybe Not Ideal First Responders

All these lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe are crushing small businesses, and policy makers are asking banks to support them with cheap loans. Banks, understandably, are not exactly clamoring to lend to, say, Crazy Eddie's House of Sofas and Waffles. Elisa Martinuzzi suggests banks should not be asked to bear all the credit risk in these lending programs, and governments should be somewhat selective about which companies get bailed out.

Meanwhile, all this extra lending to crazy sofa-and-waffle purveyors will strain banks' balance sheets, especially with the economy teetering on the edge of a depression. So even as we ask them for help, we shouldn't let banks pay dividends for the next two years, writes Narayana Kocherlakota. Otherwise they'll eat away the capital they'll need to get through this crisis.

Further Financial-Crisis Response Reading:

Telltale Charts

Many Americans feel they're on total lockdown, but Italy, Spain and France have it far rougher these days, according to this Ben Schott graphic. Their time in outdoor spaces has been slashed in half.

New York, the epicenter of the crisis in America so far, is far denser than any other U.S. city, but that's not the only factor in a pandemic, writes Justin Fox.

Further Reading

The U.S. Supreme Court forcing in-person voting in Wisconsin shows we can't rely on it to safeguard the 2020 election. States will have to do the hard work. — Noah Feldman

Iran and the U.S. are headed for another blowup in Iraq. — Hussein Ibish

Labour has a new leader, and he's a big step up from Jeremy Corbyn. — Therese Raphael

English soccer players should suck it up and sacrifice some pay, as Messi and Ronaldo have. — Alex Webb

Before my husband died of cancer he was loaded with unnecessary medical equipment that mostly went to waste. No wonder our system is so expensive. — Diane Brady

ICYMI

The acting Navy secretary quit after calling an ousted aircraft-carrier captain "stupid."

President Donald Trump ousted the inspector general tasked with overseeing the $2 trillion stimulus.

Wall Street is calling traders back to the office.

Kickers

Having no humans around turns out to be great for panda sex lives. (h/t Alistair Lowe)

New Zealand declares the Easter Bunny and Tooth Fairy essential workers. (h/t Scott Kominers)

Magnetic brain stimulation may treat depression.

The best horror movies of the year so far.

Note: Please send horror movies and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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