The future isn’t pretty

Balance of Power From FOLLOW US SUBSCRIBE   If China's experience emerging from lockdown is anything to go by, it will be a long time before the world resumes anything like life as it was before. Economists are warning of a hard road ahead as Beijing reported the country's first quarterly contraction in decades. Perhaps more troubling was a revision in its official death toll by some 40%, adding to suspicions about China's transparency in handling the Covid-19 outbreak from the outset. Even with all of China's heavy-handed measures to police the lockdown and censor information, things are still slow to get back to normal. Beijing malls check the temperature of everyone who enters, while residential communities require passes for entry. Banners around the city remind citizens to avoid large gatherings, and face masks are ubiquitous. Below the surface, frustration at the ongoing clamp down is growing. That has manifested in online nationalism, outright xenophobia and even some calls for greater freedom of speech. China's experience suggests an even tougher recovery for places with more respect for civil liberties. The lesson for the rest of the world? The economic reckoning could last for years, with unpredictable ramifications coursing throughout society that politicians are mostly powerless to stop. — Daniel Ten Kate and Peter Martin Chinese commuters pass an ad for mobile phones in Beijing on April 15. Click here for more of Bloomberg's most compelling political images from the past week. Photographer: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images AsiaPac Global Headlines Devolved power | Days after insisting he had absolute authority to steer the U.S.'s economic recovery from the outbreak, President Donald Trump instead handed over the keys to governors and businesses. The White House laid out a three-stage process for states to consider as they decide whether to relax social-distancing measures. It set no deadlines, demanded no particular action and offered little federal assistance. Click here for more on how Trump's bid to restart the economy in May could hinge on help from Canada and Mexico. Administering aid | The U.S. Congress gave the colossal task of quickly getting $349 billion in pandemic relief for mom-and-pop firms to a small, understaffed federal agency that was overwhelmed from the program's start. With the funds now tapped out after just 13 days, many businesses remain in the cold, while some that had loans approved are still wondering where the money is. Click here for more on the problems that arose the last time Congress disgorged billions of dollars for a national emergency (think strawberry shortcake martinis served from a carved beef station). Huawei heat | Mounting opposition in the U.K.'s ruling Conservative party is threatening Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plan to let Huawei Technologies help build fifth-generation mobile networks. As Kitty Donaldson reports, China's handling of the pandemic has triggered calls from prominent Tories for a rethink of the U.K.'s push for closer ties with Beijing. Virus clash | Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro took the dramatic step of firing his health minister amid a disagreement over how quickly to reopen the economy. Luiz Henrique Mandetta had repeatedly urged Brazilians to self isolate, while the president openly flaunted the advice, mingling with supporters and calling the illness "just a flu." Even with a new minister, reversing course won't be easy: State governors have the last say on when and how to ease restrictions. Dream over | As the coronavirus widens fractures in the European Union, hopes of an enlargement fade in Albania, one of the continent's poorest countries. Although the Balkan nation has made some progress in reform-making, the economic devastation caused by the virus means that the EU is unlikely to make a priority of admitting Albania as a member anytime soon, Andrea Dudik and Flavia Krause-Jackson write. What to Watch African Union envoy Tidjane Thiam says some countries on the continent may require further debt relief, even after the world's biggest economies agreed on a payment moratorium for 2020. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has raised the prospect of using the country's pension funds to bail out companies. Cameroon's Paul Biya appeared in a photograph yesterday with French ambassador Christophe Guilhou, the first time Africa's second-longest serving president has been seen in public since March 11. Pop quiz, readers (no cheating!). Which world leader romped home in an election after voters rewarded his handling of the coronavirus crisis? Send us your answers and tell us how we're doing or what we're missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net. And finally … An unexpected outcome of the pandemic is beginning to be witnessed in the oceans. With restaurants and hotels closed, global demand for fish and seafood has plummeted and fleets worldwide are stuck in port. That's prompting scientists to look for signs of a recovery in marine life, a phenomenon witnessed during the first and second world wars. While evidence remains anecdotal, Laura Millan Lombrana reports that sightings of killer whales, seals and dolphins are being recorded in areas where those mammals haven't been seen in decades. A Somali fisherman carries a sailfish on his head to the Hamarweyne fish market near the port in Mogadishu on Jan. 5. Photographer: Mohamed Abdiwahab/AFP via Getting Images   You received this message because you are subscribed to the Bloomberg Politics newsletter Balance of Power. 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