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Sell oil? You can’t even give it away these days

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Today's Agenda

Nobody's driving.

Photographer: STR/AFP/Getty Images

Nobody Wants Oil

One of the few upsides of this garbage pandemic is that shutting down much of the planet's economic activity has made the planet cleaner. Venice canal water is clear (though still dolphin-free), as are the skies over Los Angeles and elsewhere.

Unfortunately for the oil market, all this not-polluting is a result of a whole bunch of not-burning-oil, triggering a collapse in the price of it. You literally can't give the stuff away in some cases: The May futures contract for West Texas Intermediate crude today crashed far below zero. This was

due to a technical quirk, as Matt Levine explains, but at its root was the market fleeing in panic from even the thought of owning crude oil.

Oil demand, already suffering from global-warming fears, has disappeared in the coronavirus pandemic as city after city around the world shuts down and masses of people simply stop driving, as Julian Lee illustrates with several striking charts:

Even in China, where economic activity is thawing, driving isn't back to normal:

This isn't just a problem for oil traders. Crashing oil affects the broader stock market. It's certainly a problem for America's oil producers, which President Donald Trump seems keen to rescue. Texas has its own plans to save the frackers, but as Liam Denning notes, they're reminiscent of that "30 Rock" joke about

NBC's plan to "make it 1997 again by science or magic." The coronavirus is merely speeding up the exposure of longstanding deficiencies.

Also living in the past is Saudi Arabia, writes David Fickling. Its finances are still far too dependent on oil, and now it's paying the price. Junk-bond investors probably wish they could get in a time machine and return to the days before they filled their boots with high-yield energy debt, writes Brian Chappatta. Yes, the Fed is now buying junk bonds, but even its magic isn't powerful enough to make people want oil again.

The other obvious loser here is the auto industry, though Chris Bryant suggests demand for cars could snap back quickly when lockdowns end. People will probably want to keep socially distancing at least somewhat, and what better way to do that than in your own new car? At least some of that demand could be for hybrid and electric cars. Because all this clean air is kind of nice.

Trump's Disunited States

If you blinked you probably missed it, but we also had a moment of unusual bipartisan cooperation during this nightmare. Both parties agreed to throw trillions at the economic crisis, and large majorities of the country still support lockdowns to end the health crisis, as Jonathan Bernstein notes. This comity is already starting to collapse, with some help from Trump. His attack on Democratic governors, in support of astroturfed protests against lockdowns, is designed to push the blame for his own failures onto the states, writes Francis Wilkinson. Adding injury to insult, the White House is even trying to keep vital medical gear from the states.

Trump may wish he could force governors to reopen, but they can't do so safely without far more coronavirus testing. He claims this is the states' responsibility, but only the feds have the means to coordinate mass testing, writes Joe Nocera. The failure to do so belongs to Trump.

Our old political divisions are widening again over the question of reopening, with Republican governors and voters rushing out of lockdowns first, while Democrats want to keep hunkering down, writes Peter Orszag. We'll soon find out which side is right, for better or worse.

Further Trump Virus Response Reading:

Small Businesses Already Need Another Bailout

There's still enough bipartisanship left that Congress and the White House will soon top up the small-business bailout fund Congress passed just weeks ago, only to see it quickly depleted. Saving small businesses is critical for both the economy and public health, writes Mohamed El-Erian.

That's why it's bad news the bailout fund has been managed so poorly, as exemplified by Tim O'Brien's tale of two restaurants: There's Shake Shack, the medium-size burger chain that got $10 million in relief but decided to return it. Then there's Montclair Bread Company, a tiny New Jersey business that hasn't managed to get a dime. There's no reason to expect the new pot of money will be handled any better.

A New Era of Central Banking

Just as our society, economy and politics will never be the same after this pandemic, neither will central banking. In less than two months, we've seen monetary policy makers taking epic, history-making action practically weekly to fight the economic side effects of the pandemic. All of this exposes them to many risks, warns Mohamed El-Erian, including the possibility of repeating mistakes from the previous crisis.

This could also end a decades-old norm that central banks should be independent of politics, writes Clive Crook. With fiscal and monetary stimulus increasingly coordinated, we may soon forget why independence was ever an issue.

Further Central-Bank Reading:

Telltale Charts

You can track the pandemic's spread around the world by following the popularity of the search term "N95," writes Ben Schott.

Further Reading

The idea that Dish Network could become a major wireless player to fill the hole left by the T-Mobile/Sprint deal was always kind of a joke. Now it's truly laughable. — Tara Lachapelle

China isn't really stepping up as a global leader. — Nisid Hajari

Bernie Sanders's campaign ended just as his socialist ideas were having a moment. — Noah Smith

This is a chance for bosses to realize workers need flexibility and to practice giving it to them. — Sarah Green Carmichael

That time Salmon Chase snuck his face onto dollar bills, ruining it for everybody. — Stephen Mihm

Bored? Scott Duke Kominers has some word puzzles for you.

ICYMI

Sweden claims its unorthodox virus approach is working.

Rich Americans are fleeing to New Zealand.

Toilet paper shortages may get worse.

Kickers

Gravitational waves reveal the collision of heavy and light black holes. (h/t Scott Kominers)

Buildings have their own microbiomes.

Pandemic posters through the years.

Note: Please send toilet paper and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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