This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a cash hoard of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. Today's Agenda This will change us. Photographer: Jeenah Moon/Getty Images North America The National Cost of Virus Deaths Despite hopeful signs that the pace of growth is slowing in the U.S. — and yes, we are grasping at second-derivative straws — Covid-19 keeps spreading and taking lives here. It has already killed nearly 32,000 Americans, more than half the number of American deaths in the Vietnam War. Some have suggested it now tops heart disease and cancer as the leading cause of death here, though that's controversial. Suffice it to say we face fatalities on par with major wars, all of which have altered political history dramatically, writes Francis Wilkinson. The Civil War and World Wars changed the fabric of our society for generations. Vietnam took President Lyndon Johnson out of the 1968 race. Even the relatively small toll of 9/11 arguably helped re-elect President George W. Bush. Expect the upheaval of Covid-19 to be no less momentous, even if we don't know what it means yet. It didn't have to be this way, of course. A couple of extra weeks of social distancing could have drastically lowered the death toll. We'd do well to study Germany, which has one of Europe's lowest Covid-19 death counts, and not because it's cheating by failing to test enough. It has tested and traced and social-distanced and done every other right thing in the pandemic-fighting handbook, writes Andreas Kluth. The German worship of expertise and order may hinder it in normal times, but it sure is handy in a crisis. Less admirable is the U.K., which touts its own relatively low death count, but that conveniently excludes several key tallies, including people who have died in nursing homes, notes Lionel Laurent. Denial is not a useful trait when fighting pandemics. The Trouble With Contact Tracing This weekend Apple Inc. and Google announced work on a contact-tracing app that would help officials isolate clusters of people exposed to the coronavirus. It was rightly hailed as a big advance; such technology has helped Singapore and South Korea effectively fight the disease. But it's no magic bullet here. For one thing, the U.S. is still woefully behind in testing enough people to make contact tracing useful. And today Cathy O'Neil points out another big flaw: It won't track infected people and their contacts who don't have smartphones. Many of these people, including the homeless and elderly in nursing homes, are at greatest risk of catching the virus. And many more who do have phones can't afford medical care or to stop working if they learn they're infected. Until we can better care for these people, contact tracing's utility is limited. Those of us with smartphones, great jobs and great health-care benefits, on the other hand, will get a lot out of the app. This will be just another way Covid-19 pries the yawning digital divide even wider, writes Tyler Cowen. It's already hampering how well our children learn and workers work. Now it's hurting how we fight this disease. Fortunately the U.S. has tapped into the creative and flexible computing power of its health-care professionals, writes Faye Flam. They're constantly learning new tricks to fight the disease and help patients, and teaching their colleagues as they go. If we manage to limit the fatalities in this nightmare, these heroes will be a big part of the reason. Trump vs. the WHO, Congress and the Oil Market Right in the middle of a world health crisis, President Donald Trump yesterday said he would cut off U.S. funding to the World Health Organization. The U.S. is the WHO's biggest source of cash, so this made no one happy. Eli Lake says it's an effort to force the WHO to force China — those darn second derivatives again — to be more transparent with virus data. Trump has less leverage over China, but this is a risky strategy, to say the least. To name just one devastating effect, war-torn Yemen badly needs the WHO's help to fight the coronavirus, writes Bobby Ghosh. The pugilistic Trump was also fighting Democrats, blaming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for Covid-19 deaths in California and threatening to adjourn Congress for the first time in history to stop Democrats from blocking his appointments. Here's the thing, though, Jonathan Bernstein writes: Republicans are the ones holding up his appointments. On the friendlier side, Trump is reportedly trying to help America's frackers with a plan to pay them to designate some of their oil in the ground as being part of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Liam Denning points out this is just a fracker bailout with a "veneer of energy security." Protecting Retirement Mark Gilbert wrote yesterday that slashed dividend payments and falling bond yields are wreaking havoc on pensions around the world. But Chris Hughes today defends the dividend-cutters, at least, arguing we can't criticize companies for choosing to hoard cash in a crisis rather than shovel it out the door to shareholders. Barry Ritholtz has some helpful tips on how to protect your retirement nut in these difficult times. One retirement tip not on Barry's list: Be very rich. Morgan Stanley today said its wealthy clients are hoarding their own cash, writes Brian Chappatta. We might want to watch them for signs of animal spirits reviving. Telltale Charts While everybody you know is Zoom-ing, Verizon just bought Zoom rival BlueJeans, which offers encryption Zoom doesn't. It may only wish it had closed the deal a few months sooner, notes Tara Lachapelle. Further Reading Hedge-fund managers have declared themselves small businesses and are lining up for relief. — Tim O'Brien Wild markets have helped banks thrive in the crisis so far, but the cratering economy will change that. — Elisa Martinuzzi China's blowing an opportunity to wipe out $1.5 trillion in bad debts before more bad loans start rolling in. — Anjani Trivedi The parts of the economy still open could use a round of stimulus. — Narayana Kocherlakota ICYMI Trump plans to release reopening guidelines. Carnival executives knew they had a virus problem but kept cruising anyway. Your genes may affect how sick Covid-19 makes you. People in Wuhan are staying away from restaurants. Kickers Irish sheep farmer shears self, inspires the quarantined. Scientists are closer to understanding why matter outnumbers antimatter. (h/t Scott Kominers for the first two kickers) Astronomers found the most Earth-like exoplanet yet. Why copper is so good at killing viruses. Note: Please send copper and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and follow us on Twitter and Facebook. |
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