| Welcome to your morning markets update, delivered every weekday before the European open. Good morning. The virus infection rate picture took a turn for the worse, there's more predictions on the hit to the economy and big bank dividends remain in focus. Here's what's moving markets. Virus Hopes Dampened The latest infection numbers from European virus hotspots are dampening hopes of lockdowns being relaxed. Italy and Spain both recorded the most new cases in days, while the U.K. announced a record number of coronavirus deaths as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson remained in intensive care, though his condition was said to improve. A "technical issue" meant France couldn't give an update on its Covid-19 numbers. Worryingly, new research looking at the outbreak in China has suggested the disease travels faster than previously thought. 5 Trillion Hit The coronavirus pandemic is set to rob the global economy of more than $5 trillion of growth over the next two years. That's the warning from Wall Street banks as lockdowns plunge the world into its deepest peacetime recession since the 1930s. Although the downturn is predicted to be short-lived, it'll take time for economies to make up the lost ground. Even with huge monetary and fiscal stimulus, gross domestic product is unlikely to return to its pre-crisis trend until at least 2022. A U.S. recession model confirms a downturn is already here. UBS, Credit Suisse Dividends Swiss banking giants UBS Group AG and Credit Suisse Group AG announced that they will postpone half of their planned dividend distributions for 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020, following a request from the regulator. Credit Suisse reassured that its financial strength would have continued to support the original dividend, while UBS noted a strong operating performance in all business divisions. The move follows similar actions by peers on the continent and in the U.K. Stock Futures, Oil Higher European futures are pointing higher after mixed trading in Asian stocks amid lighter volumes ahead of the Good Friday holiday in many countries. Oil climbed after Algeria confirmed that the OPEC+ emergency meeting scheduled for today will discuss an output cut of 10 million barrels per day. An unprecedented accord between the world's largest producers to scale back production has moved closer within reach after Russia signaled it's ready to make output reductions. Coming Up… Just Eat Takeaway publishes an update having been touted as a potential lockdown winner, while German software giant SAP SE predicted a drop in revenue earlier. Keep an eye on shares of oil majors including Royal Dutch Shell, BP Plc and Total SA, too, as Saudi Arabia was said to buy stakes, according to the Wall Street Journal. And watch U.K. homebuilders after data showed the housing market flatlining. German exports and U.K. industrial production for February are expected to be weak, but will get much worse in the months ahead. U.S. weekly jobless claims are set to be in the millions again. What We've Been Reading This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. And finally, here's what Cormac Mullen is interested in this morning The ETF equivalent of the magazine cover indicator may have hit the work-from-home investment theme. Direxion is planning to start a new "work-from-home" exchange-traded fund that tracks industries such as cloud technologies and remote communications, according to an SEC filing. The move reminds me of the old adage that when a popular investment theme becomes plastered across magazine covers, it may already be too late to profit from it. Stocks of firms that benefit from people staying indoors or working from home have been handily outpacing the market since concern about the coronavirus outbreak took off in earnest. A basket of European stocks chosen by SocGen strategists that benefit from home work and play -- food delivery, online entertainment, communication and household product companies -- and an Asian equivalent chosen by Bloomberg News, have outperformed regional benchmarks by 15%-20% so far this year. Tracking the baskets and the new ETF -- which of course will trade under the ticker WFH -- for a reversal of that trend could be a good signal to investors that markets are readying for a return of sorts to normal.  Cormac Mullen is a Cross-Asset reporter and editor for Bloomberg News in Tokyo. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. | 
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