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We may not have virus tests, but the markets are OK

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Today's Agenda

One crisis at a time, please.

Photographer: ALEX EDELMAN/AFP/Getty Images

Millions Lose Jobs, Markets Cheer

One amazing thing about human brains and markets is how they adjust to pretty much anything eventually: In the past 20 years, we've come to grips with a war on terrorism, a financial crisis and the Trump presidency, to name three previously unthinkable developments. Now we're learning to absorb the Great Pandemic Hunkering.

The Labor Department today reported a 3-million-person surge in unemployment claims last week, the sort of thing imagined only in economists' wildest nightmares. It's the first signpost on the way to a wasteland of economic numbers not seen even in the Great Depression, the result of shutting down much of the country to fight Covid-19. So, naturally, markets … rallied? Like, a lot?

Because even as those numbers hit, the ink was still drying on a $2 trillion relief bill, with promises of more to come. That package gives the Federal Reserve $454 billion it can leverage to spray trillions of dollars worth of loans to the economy, on top of what it's already doing to keep credit markets moving. That's why, as dead-catty as it certainly is, the market's bounce also makes good sense, writes John Authers. The coronavirus is still spreading through the country, but at least the financial rescuers have taken control.

And there's still more they can do. For one thing, Congress should help state governments patch the very large holes being blown in their budgets, writes Liz Farmer. As for the Fed, it still has other tools it can use even with interest rates at zero, writes Tim Duy, beyond its new magical money pot. The European Central Bank, meanwhile, seems to have stopped a sovereign debt crisis, but there's a European Stability Mechanism — another pot of money, basically — countries such as Italy can tap if leaks start springing in the ECB's dam. Although Ferdinando Giugliano suggests it should only be used in such an emergency.

Central bankers are also loosening rules for banks, giving them leeway to make risky loans and take bigger capital hits in a crisis. This makes sense for now, writes Elisa Martinuzzi, but we should make sure we don't set the stage for the next crisis in the process.

The Shoddy Virus Response

If only the response to the virus itself could be so overwhelming and reassuring. Instead, our hospitals are already swamped, infection rates are skyrocketing, and we still aren't testing enough to know just how bad the problem really is. We had what we needed for a test way back in January, notes Joe Nocera, but the Trump administration's half-hearted and inept response means it's still not in widespread use. Along the way, we lost our chance to do the sort of widespread testing and tracing that helped South Korea control its outbreak.

South Korea wasn't alone; other Asian governments offered models of epidemic management — all of which the U.S., Italy and other governments stubbornly ignored, repeating the same deadly mistakes. Human nature explains both why Asia handled the virus well and the West has not, writes Clara Ferreira Marques.

Nobody personifies this human nature quite like President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly ignored or dismissed expert warnings, making the crisis far worse than it had to be. Public opinion isn't punishing Trump for it yet, though that may change as the full cost grows. Covid-19 is often called his "Katrina," after President George W. Bush's clumsy handling of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. By now this comparison is deeply unfair to Bush. A far better historical echo is found in Vietnam, writes Francis Wilkinson. Now, as then, miscalculations and dishonesty will cause thousands to die painfully and unnecessarily.

Further Inept-Response Reading: We should keep letting the president talk on TV, now matter how much misinformation he spouts. — Jonathan Bernstein

How to Do Streaming Right

You may be reading this newsletter on your long, difficult commute from the guest bedroom to the living room, after a day of Zooming and Slacking for work. Your kids, who might have the spent the day FaceTiming and Fortniting, will now join you for an evening of Netflixing. This is an awful lot of Internetting! And it puts an awful strain on broadband and mobile networks, especially at peak times when everybody in your neighborhood/town/state is trying to do the same stuff. Alex Webb offers some tips on how not to overload the system when everybody is hunkered down at once.

An overly busy network is a nice problem for Comcast Corp. to have, writes Tara Lachapelle. Yes, it's shutting down amusement parks and losing ad revenue. But Internet service is its real bread and butter, and these are salad days. What I'm saying is, I forgot to eat lunch.

Telltale Charts

Coronavirus is shutting down airports everywhere, raising questions about what sorts of bailouts they should get when many of them are privately owned, writes Chris Bryant.

Further Reading

A lot of global business depends on Apple Inc. sticking to its regular iPhone release schedule, threatened now by coronavirus. — Tim Culpan 

Even sparsely populated South Dakota has to worry about the virus. Its numbers are rising, and Congress offered no help to the rural hospitals that may soon be overwhelmed. — Mary Duenwald 

Patents for key medical equipment should be put in the public domain temporarily during crises like these. — Scott Duke Kominers 

Coronavirus could be what it takes to make a cease-fire happen in Yemen. — Bobby Ghosh 

Suddenly we realize our most vital, vulnerable workers aren't M&A lawyers but nurses, drivers and grocery cashiers. — Andreas Kluth 

ICYMI

Emails show chaos at the CDC hindering coronavirus response.

Bosch developed a fast virus testing kit.

When and how will you get that stimulus check?

Kickers

Social distancing is slowing other diseases.

Radio listening is booming as music streaming stalls.

Archaeologists find lead-spiked, 19th century beer bottles.

The 25 best board-game mobile apps.

Note: Please send stimulus checks and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net.

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