One step forward, two steps back
EDITOR'S NOTE
You've got to walk before you can run. We're talking about going back to "normal" in the economy already without a clear explanation of what that would mean.
Tom Friedman on Squawk Box this morning said "people need to know the plan," for normalization, in order to trust it, and he's right. (#NotDying4WallStreet is trending on Twitter right now.)
A five-point plan might look something like: (1) secure needed hospital beds, (2) get the necessary supplies (masks, respirators, ventilators) in place, (3) have enough tests ready, (4) determine criteria for "green zones," and (5) help the vulnerable populations that might have to remain self-quarantined.
Deciding the number of beds, supplies, and tests needed for each region--and securing them as quickly as possible--is where local officials come in. New York City's needs are different from rural Virginia's, which are different from coastal Florida's. One city might use its major convention centers for extra capacity; another may use trailers from a local RV maker. These don't all have to be sophisticated set-ups; Korea separated patients into four groups (critical, severe, mild, and asymptomatic) and put the latter two into, essentially, dormitories with WiFi and TV that required much less staffing and equipment.
But if people "know the numbers" their region has to hit in order to qualify for normalization, that will go a long way towards building confidence and fending off the uncertainty and political infighting that is already upon us. The "green zone" criteria (meaning, places where people can start going back to work and out in public) could be standardized nationwide and perhaps Google Maps and ticketing software could help warn people where not to travel for awhile. Most important: getting massive testing capacity as quickly as possible, so infected but asymptomatic people everywhere can be identified and isolated until they're virus-free again.
There is a huge cost to leaving the country in a prolonged coronavirus lockdown, not just economically, but in public health terms, too. A sustained, deep recession could mean 200,000 more U.S. deaths this year, according to economist projections. Drug use rises, public safety is jeopardized by the release of prison populations, and people who need access to hospitals for vital treatment--say, for cancer and diabetes--can't get it.
We can't stay on lockdown forever. But we can't go back to "normal" too quickly, or it risks overwhelming the healthcare system and stirring up public mistrust that ignores the order and doesn't help businesses get back up and running anyhow. A clearer plan could go a long way right now.
See you at 1 p.m...
Kelly
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