It’s going to get worse soon

Here's the latest news: World nervously eyes unwind of Wuhan lockdown U.S. rescue plan's winners and losers Singapore's economy plunges in first quarter Lagging Indicators The U.S. is about to enter a new phase of its Covid-19 outbreak. Patients who have been diagnosed and hospitalized in recent days and weeks will start dying in greater numbers, and it's going to look very bad. But the tragic news that's to come—news that will generate scary headlines and influence debate over whether to get back to business in New York, California and elsewhere in the U.S.—was set in motion days and weeks ago. It takes an average of five days from when a person was exposed to the virus for it to incubate and grow into a symptomatic illness. For patients who are sick enough to be hospitalized, it can take two weeks for them to recover or, in some cases, die, according to a study of patients in China.  In the last seven days, New York City has diagnosed 18,000 patients. On Wednesday alone, it found 4,400 more. Almost 4,000 people have been hospitalized, including 1,000 on Wednesday, according to the city health department's running tallies. The city reported the most 911 calls since Sept. 11. The large majority of these new patients were likely infected before the state closed non-essential businesses and told people to stay home on March 20. New infections are likely to continue to rise for days in New York and elsewhere around the county. We haven't seen the consequences of these illnesses yet. The cycle that's about to happen in the U.S. has already happened in China, Italy and Spain: Early patients were identified, testing eventually grew more widespread, thousands of new cases were found, and then deaths began to accumulate. Italy, which has roughly as many cases as the U.S., has 6,800 deaths. Its outbreak is just a few weeks further ahead. The good news is that lockdowns of movement and business have helped curtail new cases in those places. And fewer new cases means fewer people dying weeks later.  But signs of improvement will takes time. Death is, morbidly, a lagging indicator.—Drew Armstrong Track the virus   Mapping the Outbreak Around the World See the latest counts globally, and track Covid-19's spread in the U.S. Sponsored Content by the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association One in five Americans living in rural areas lacks consistent access to the healthcare they need. See how Blue Cross and Blue Shield companies are using their local roots to fill the rural health care gap.   What you should read Doctors Forced to Choose Who Dies From Virus In Spain, the morgues are full. Fed's Anti-Virus Lending Could Reach $4.5 Trillion Programs seen as a bridge to sustain firms during virus. Covid-19 Has Turned Economics Upside Down  Tilt toward government spending will be tough to unwind. World Leaders May Never Give Up Virus Powers Civil liberties rolled back as governments impose strict measures. Delay Boosts Costs for $12 Billion Olympics  Taxpayers, sponsors likely will fork over billions of dollars more. Know someone else who would like this newsletter?  Have them sign up here. Have any questions, concerns, or news tips on Covid-19 news?  Get in touch. Like this newsletter? Subscribe for unlimited access to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Follow Us You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Coronavirus Daily newsletter. Unsubscribe | Bloomberg.com | Contact Us Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022